GFS-DERIVED GREAT SALT LAKE-EFFECT FORECAST GUIDANCE ************************************************************** * THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL, AUTOMATED AND UNOFFICIAL FORECAST * ************************************************************** CREATED/MAINTAINED BY TREVOR ALCOTT AND JIM STEENBURGH BASED PARTLY ON ALCOTT ET AL. (2012, WEATHER AND FORECASTING) Contact: jim.steenburgh@utah.edu 7-DAY MEDIAN GREAT SALT LAKE (SOUTH ARM) TEMPERATURE FROM AVHRR 14.2 C CLIMATOLOGICAL LAKE TEMPERATURE 15.5 C LAKE TEMPERATURE USED IN CALCULATIONS 14.9 C For more on GSL temperatures: http://home.chpc.utah.edu/~u0198116/AVHRR/gsltemp.html 04-27-2024 06Z GFS FORECAST HOURS 0-120 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 0 Sat 12 AM 7900 FT -2.7 C 17.6 C 0.0 C 94% ENE 10 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 1 Sat 01 AM 7800 FT -2.8 C 17.7 C 0.0 C 95% NE 9 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 2 Sat 02 AM 7800 FT -2.8 C 17.7 C 0.0 C 95% ENE 6 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 3 Sat 03 AM 7900 FT -2.9 C 17.8 C 0.0 C 97% SE 3 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 4 Sat 04 AM 7500 FT -2.7 C 17.6 C 0.0 C 97% ENE 1 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 5 Sat 05 AM 7000 FT -2.7 C 17.6 C 0.0 C 98% NW 1 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 6 Sat 06 AM 6800 FT -3.1 C 18.0 C 0.0 C 98% WNW 3 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 7 Sat 07 AM 6800 FT -3.6 C 18.5 C 0.0 C 98% WNW 5 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 8 Sat 08 AM 6900 FT -3.9 C 18.8 C 0.0 C 98% WNW 5 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 9 Sat 09 AM 6900 FT -4.3 C 19.2 C 0.0 C 98% WNW 5 KT 6.1 C/KM 0% 10 Sat 10 AM 6900 FT -4.8 C 19.7 C 0.0 C 98% NW 8 KT 5.8 C/KM 0% 11 Sat 11 AM 6800 FT -4.7 C 19.6 C 0.0 C 98% WNW 7 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 12 Sat 12 PM 6600 FT -4.5 C 19.4 C 0.0 C 99% W 6 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 13 Sat 01 PM 6700 FT -4.4 C 19.3 C 0.0 C 99% W 6 KT 5.8 C/KM 0% 14 Sat 02 PM 6700 FT -4.5 C 19.4 C 0.0 C 99% W 6 KT 5.5 C/KM 0% 15 Sat 03 PM 6700 FT -4.2 C 19.1 C 0.0 C 98% W 6 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 16 Sat 04 PM 6800 FT -4.7 C 19.6 C 0.0 C 98% WNW 6 KT 5.6 C/KM 0% 17 Sat 05 PM 7000 FT -4.8 C 19.7 C 0.0 C 97% WNW 8 KT 5.4 C/KM 0% 18 Sat 06 PM 7000 FT -4.7 C 19.6 C 0.0 C 96% NW 11 KT 5.2 C/KM 0% 19 Sat 07 PM 7100 FT -4.3 C 19.2 C 0.0 C 92% NW 17 KT 5.4 C/KM 0% 20 Sat 08 PM 7200 FT -3.6 C 18.5 C 0.0 C 89% NW 23 KT 5.7 C/KM 0% 21 Sat 09 PM 7200 FT -2.9 C 17.8 C 0.0 C 86% NNW 29 KT 6.1 C/KM 0% 22 Sat 10 PM 7300 FT -2.7 C 17.6 C 0.0 C 82% NW 28 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 23 Sat 11 PM 7400 FT -2.9 C 17.8 C 0.0 C 77% NW 25 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 24 Sun 12 AM 7400 FT -3.2 C 18.1 C 0.0 C 74% NW 23 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 25 Sun 01 AM 7300 FT -3.3 C 18.2 C 0.0 C 71% NW 21 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 26 Sun 02 AM 7300 FT -3.6 C 18.5 C 0.0 C 73% NW 21 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 27 Sun 03 AM 7300 FT -3.7 C 18.6 C 0.0 C 74% NW 19 KT 5.8 C/KM 0% 28 Sun 04 AM 7200 FT -4.0 C 18.9 C 0.0 C 74% NW 19 KT 5.8 C/KM 0% 29 Sun 05 AM 7300 FT -4.5 C 19.4 C 0.0 C 73% NW 18 KT 5.8 C/KM 0% 30 Sun 06 AM 7200 FT -4.7 C 19.6 C 0.0 C 72% NW 16 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 31 Sun 07 AM 7200 FT -5.1 C 20.0 C 0.1 C 77% NW 13 KT 5.8 C/KM 5% SLC/COTTONWOODS 32 Sun 08 AM 7100 FT -4.9 C 19.8 C 0.0 C 80% WNW 15 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 33 Sun 09 AM 7200 FT -4.7 C 19.6 C 0.0 C 81% NW 15 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 34 Sun 10 AM 7300 FT -4.9 C 19.8 C 0.0 C 80% NW 14 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 35 Sun 11 AM 7400 FT -4.4 C 19.3 C 0.0 C 77% NW 14 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 36 Sun 12 PM 7500 FT -4.2 C 19.1 C 0.0 C 74% WNW 14 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 37 Sun 01 PM 7600 FT -4.1 C 19.0 C 0.0 C 71% WNW 14 KT 6.1 C/KM 0% 38 Sun 02 PM 7700 FT -3.9 C 18.8 C 0.0 C 69% WNW 16 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 39 Sun 03 PM 7900 FT -3.6 C 18.5 C 0.0 C 68% W 15 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 40 Sun 04 PM 7900 FT -3.2 C 18.1 C 0.0 C 67% W 16 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 41 Sun 05 PM 7700 FT -2.7 C 17.6 C 0.0 C 59% WNW 15 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 42 Sun 06 PM 7600 FT -2.6 C 17.5 C 0.0 C 54% WNW 13 KT 6.1 C/KM 0% 43 Sun 07 PM 7700 FT -2.2 C 17.1 C 0.0 C 52% WNW 14 KT 6.1 C/KM 0% 44 Sun 08 PM 7900 FT -1.3 C 16.2 C 0.0 C 50% WNW 14 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 45 Sun 09 PM 7900 FT -1.5 C 16.4 C 0.0 C 49% WNW 12 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 46 Sun 10 PM 8000 FT -1.3 C 16.2 C 0.0 C 48% WNW 10 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 47 Sun 11 PM 8000 FT -1.1 C 16.0 C 0.0 C 47% W 10 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 48 Mon 12 AM 8100 FT -1.0 C 15.9 C 0.0 C 47% W 12 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 49 Mon 01 AM 8200 FT -1.0 C 15.9 C 0.0 C 49% W 12 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 50 Mon 02 AM 8300 FT -1.1 C 16.0 C 0.0 C 50% W 12 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 51 Mon 03 AM 8300 FT -1.2 C 16.1 C 0.0 C 50% WSW 11 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 52 Mon 04 AM 8400 FT -1.2 C 16.1 C 0.0 C 52% WSW 11 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 53 Mon 05 AM 8400 FT -1.3 C 16.2 C 0.0 C 53% WSW 11 KT 6.1 C/KM 0% 54 Mon 06 AM 8400 FT -1.6 C 16.5 C 0.0 C 53% WSW 10 KT 6.1 C/KM 0% 55 Mon 07 AM 8400 FT -1.6 C 16.5 C 0.0 C 54% SW 13 KT 6.1 C/KM 0% 56 Mon 08 AM 8400 FT -0.8 C 15.7 C 0.0 C 52% SW 15 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 57 Mon 09 AM 8500 FT -0.3 C 15.2 C 0.0 C 52% SW 17 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 58 Mon 10 AM 8600 FT -0.1 C 15.0 C 0.0 C 51% SW 20 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 59 Mon 11 AM 8600 FT -0.1 C 15.0 C 0.0 C 47% SW 21 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 60 Mon 12 PM 8600 FT 0.2 C 14.7 C 0.0 C 41% WSW 22 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 61 Mon 01 PM 8800 FT 0.9 C 14.0 C 0.0 C 39% SW 22 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 62 Mon 02 PM 9000 FT 1.4 C 13.5 C 0.0 C 38% SW 23 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 63 Mon 03 PM 9200 FT 2.2 C 12.7 C 0.0 C 36% SW 27 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 64 Mon 04 PM 9300 FT 2.3 C 12.6 C 0.0 C 35% WSW 29 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 65 Mon 05 PM 8100 FT 2.3 C 12.6 C 0.0 C 23% W 35 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 66 Mon 06 PM 8300 FT 1.2 C 13.7 C 0.0 C 51% W 29 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 67 Mon 07 PM 7700 FT -2.1 C 17.0 C 0.0 C 63% WNW 34 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 68 Mon 08 PM 7500 FT -4.4 C 19.3 C 0.0 C 72% WNW 27 KT 5.6 C/KM 0% 69 Mon 09 PM 7300 FT -4.3 C 19.2 C 0.0 C 66% WNW 28 KT 5.7 C/KM 0% 70 Mon 10 PM 6900 FT -4.9 C 19.8 C 0.0 C 70% WNW 22 KT 5.3 C/KM 0% 71 Mon 11 PM 6300 FT -6.1 C 21.0 C 1.1 C 62% WNW 20 KT 5.0 C/KM 2% BOUNTIFUL 72 Tue 12 AM 5900 FT -6.8 C 21.7 C 1.7 C 58% WNW 14 KT 4.9 C/KM 2% BOUNTIFUL 73 Tue 01 AM 5400 FT -6.8 C 21.7 C 1.7 C 50% WNW 15 KT 5.2 C/KM 0% 74 Tue 02 AM 5300 FT -6.9 C 21.8 C 1.8 C 47% WNW 17 KT 5.3 C/KM 0% 75 Tue 03 AM 5200 FT -7.1 C 22.0 C 2.0 C 44% WNW 19 KT 5.2 C/KM 0% 76 Tue 04 AM 5000 FT -7.0 C 21.9 C 1.9 C 42% WNW 18 KT 5.3 C/KM 0% 77 Tue 05 AM 4900 FT -6.5 C 21.4 C 1.4 C 41% W 17 KT 5.4 C/KM 0% 78 Tue 06 AM 4900 FT -6.2 C 21.1 C 1.1 C 41% W 18 KT 5.3 C/KM 0% 79 Tue 07 AM 4800 FT -5.4 C 20.3 C 0.3 C 40% W 20 KT 5.5 C/KM 0% 80 Tue 08 AM 4800 FT -4.9 C 19.8 C 0.0 C 38% WSW 20 KT 5.5 C/KM 0% 81 Tue 09 AM 5100 FT -4.4 C 19.3 C 0.0 C 38% WSW 21 KT 5.5 C/KM 0% 82 Tue 10 AM 5400 FT -4.0 C 18.9 C 0.0 C 39% WSW 21 KT 5.6 C/KM 0% 83 Tue 11 AM 5900 FT -3.8 C 18.7 C 0.0 C 41% WSW 19 KT 5.6 C/KM 0% 84 Tue 12 PM 6400 FT -3.5 C 18.4 C 0.0 C 41% WSW 18 KT 5.8 C/KM 0% 85 Tue 01 PM 6800 FT -3.3 C 18.2 C 0.0 C 41% SW 17 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 86 Tue 02 PM 7100 FT -2.6 C 17.5 C 0.0 C 42% SSW 17 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 87 Tue 03 PM 7100 FT -1.8 C 16.7 C 0.0 C 42% SW 18 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 88 Tue 04 PM 7200 FT -1.4 C 16.3 C 0.0 C 38% SW 20 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 89 Tue 05 PM 7300 FT -0.8 C 15.7 C 0.0 C 39% SW 20 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 90 Tue 06 PM 7500 FT -0.1 C 15.0 C 0.0 C 36% WSW 20 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 91 Tue 07 PM 7600 FT 0.1 C 14.8 C 0.0 C 35% WSW 19 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 92 Tue 08 PM 7700 FT 0.1 C 14.8 C 0.0 C 33% WSW 18 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 93 Tue 09 PM 7600 FT 0.1 C 14.8 C 0.0 C 32% W 20 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 94 Tue 10 PM 7400 FT -0.6 C 15.5 C 0.0 C 32% W 15 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 95 Tue 11 PM 7100 FT -1.6 C 16.5 C 0.0 C 43% W 11 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 96 Wed 12 AM 6900 FT -1.8 C 16.7 C 0.0 C 43% W 14 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 97 Wed 01 AM 6700 FT -2.3 C 17.2 C 0.0 C 46% W 10 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 98 Wed 02 AM 6600 FT -2.5 C 17.4 C 0.0 C 45% W 9 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 99 Wed 03 AM 5900 FT -3.1 C 18.0 C 0.0 C 49% W 8 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 100 Wed 04 AM 5500 FT -3.3 C 18.2 C 0.0 C 48% WSW 9 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 101 Wed 05 AM 5300 FT -4.0 C 18.9 C 0.0 C 48% W 8 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 102 Wed 06 AM 5200 FT -4.2 C 19.1 C 0.0 C 47% WSW 11 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 103 Wed 07 AM 5100 FT -4.8 C 19.7 C 0.0 C 47% WSW 12 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 104 Wed 08 AM 5000 FT -5.5 C 20.4 C 0.3 C 47% WSW 13 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 105 Wed 09 AM 5000 FT -6.9 C 21.8 C 1.7 C 47% W 10 KT 5.4 C/KM 0% 106 Wed 10 AM 4900 FT -8.2 C 23.1 C 3.0 C 50% W 11 KT 5.1 C/KM 0% 107 Wed 11 AM 5000 FT -9.2 C 24.1 C 4.0 C 54% WNW 12 KT 4.9 C/KM 0% 108 Wed 12 PM 5100 FT -9.4 C 24.3 C 4.2 C 72% WNW 13 KT 5.0 C/KM 14% BOUNTIFUL 109 Wed 01 PM 4700 FT -10.3 C 25.2 C 5.1 C 63% WNW 18 KT 5.3 C/KM 6% BOUNTIFUL 110 Wed 02 PM 4700 FT -10.1 C 25.0 C 4.9 C 51% WNW 20 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 111 Wed 03 PM 4500 FT -10.2 C 25.1 C 5.0 C 47% WNW 15 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 112 Wed 04 PM 4500 FT -9.8 C 24.7 C 4.6 C 39% WNW 19 KT 8.8 C/KM 0% 113 Wed 05 PM 4600 FT -8.9 C 23.8 C 3.7 C 32% WNW 19 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 114 Wed 06 PM 4600 FT -8.3 C 23.2 C 3.1 C 26% WNW 19 KT 9.0 C/KM 0% 115 Wed 07 PM 5000 FT -7.9 C 22.8 C 2.7 C 38% NW 24 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 116 Wed 08 PM 5000 FT -8.2 C 23.1 C 3.0 C 39% NW 24 KT 8.7 C/KM 0% 117 Wed 09 PM 5000 FT -8.0 C 22.9 C 2.8 C 38% NW 26 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% 118 Wed 10 PM 5100 FT -7.9 C 22.8 C 2.7 C 37% NW 22 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 119 Wed 11 PM 5100 FT -8.0 C 22.9 C 2.8 C 38% WNW 16 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 120 Thu 12 AM 5000 FT -7.8 C 22.7 C 2.6 C 41% WNW 16 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% FORECAST HOURS 123-180 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 123 Thu 03 AM 4600 FT -7.6 C 22.5 C 2.4 C 44% NNW 14 KT 5.8 C/KM 0% 126 Thu 06 AM 0 FT -7.3 C 22.2 C 2.1 C 45% N 8 KT 5.1 C/KM 0% 129 Thu 09 AM 4800 FT -6.5 C 21.4 C 1.3 C 40% NNE 2 KT 5.1 C/KM 0% 132 Thu 12 PM 5600 FT -3.7 C 18.6 C 0.0 C 33% S 5 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 135 Thu 03 PM 6600 FT -2.1 C 17.0 C 0.0 C 33% SSW 10 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 138 Thu 06 PM 7200 FT 0.4 C 14.5 C 0.0 C 32% SW 13 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 141 Thu 09 PM 7400 FT 1.7 C 13.2 C 0.0 C 23% WSW 15 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 144 Fri 12 AM 7100 FT 2.4 C 12.5 C 0.0 C 18% SW 18 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 147 Fri 03 AM 7700 FT 2.7 C 12.2 C 0.0 C 20% SW 24 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 150 Fri 06 AM 7300 FT 1.8 C 13.1 C 0.0 C 24% WSW 26 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 153 Fri 09 AM 7100 FT 1.0 C 13.9 C 0.0 C 26% WSW 16 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 156 Fri 12 PM 7800 FT 1.6 C 13.3 C 0.0 C 31% WSW 24 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 159 Fri 03 PM 8400 FT 2.3 C 12.6 C 0.0 C 31% WSW 22 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 162 Fri 06 PM 8700 FT 2.9 C 12.0 C 0.0 C 32% W 17 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 165 Fri 09 PM 9000 FT 3.9 C 11.0 C 0.0 C 27% WNW 19 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 168 Sat 12 AM 9000 FT 3.7 C 11.2 C 0.0 C 28% W 13 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 171 Sat 03 AM 8900 FT 4.2 C 10.7 C 0.0 C 28% SW 14 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 174 Sat 06 AM 9300 FT 5.3 C 9.6 C 0.0 C 29% SSW 25 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 177 Sat 09 AM 9400 FT 6.2 C 8.7 C 0.0 C 27% SW 30 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 180 Sat 12 PM 9800 FT 5.6 C 9.3 C 0.0 C 27% SSW 37 KT 7.7 C/KM 0%