GFS-DERIVED GREAT SALT LAKE-EFFECT FORECAST GUIDANCE ************************************************************** * THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL, AUTOMATED AND UNOFFICIAL FORECAST * ************************************************************** CREATED/MAINTAINED BY TREVOR ALCOTT AND JIM STEENBURGH BASED PARTLY ON ALCOTT ET AL. (2012, WEATHER AND FORECASTING) Contact: jim.steenburgh@utah.edu 7-DAY MEDIAN GREAT SALT LAKE (SOUTH ARM) TEMPERATURE FROM AVHRR 14.9 C CLIMATOLOGICAL LAKE TEMPERATURE 18.1 C LAKE TEMPERATURE USED IN CALCULATIONS 16.5 C For more on GSL temperatures: http://home.chpc.utah.edu/~u0198116/AVHRR/gsltemp.html 05-15-2024 06Z GFS FORECAST HOURS 0-120 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 0 Wed 12 AM 8500 FT 2.4 C 14.1 C 0.0 C 36% NNE 17 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 1 Wed 01 AM 8700 FT 2.0 C 14.5 C 0.0 C 40% NE 15 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 2 Wed 02 AM 8900 FT 1.7 C 14.8 C 0.0 C 42% NNE 12 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 3 Wed 03 AM 8900 FT 1.4 C 15.1 C 0.0 C 42% N 11 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 4 Wed 04 AM 8800 FT 1.3 C 15.2 C 0.0 C 41% N 10 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 5 Wed 05 AM 8700 FT 1.4 C 15.1 C 0.0 C 41% NNE 9 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 6 Wed 06 AM 8700 FT 1.3 C 15.2 C 0.0 C 42% NNE 9 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 7 Wed 07 AM 8700 FT 1.2 C 15.3 C 0.0 C 44% N 9 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 8 Wed 08 AM 8700 FT 1.0 C 15.5 C 0.0 C 46% ENE 9 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 9 Wed 09 AM 8800 FT 0.8 C 15.7 C 0.0 C 47% N 9 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 10 Wed 10 AM 8800 FT 0.7 C 15.8 C 0.0 C 49% N 8 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 11 Wed 11 AM 8900 FT 0.7 C 15.8 C 0.0 C 50% WNW 7 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 12 Wed 12 PM 9200 FT 0.8 C 15.7 C 0.0 C 48% N 6 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 13 Wed 01 PM 9200 FT 1.0 C 15.5 C 0.0 C 48% N 6 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 14 Wed 02 PM 9400 FT 1.2 C 15.3 C 0.0 C 47% E 6 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 15 Wed 03 PM 9600 FT 1.4 C 15.1 C 0.0 C 47% NNE 7 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 16 Wed 04 PM 9700 FT 2.2 C 14.3 C 0.0 C 47% NE 7 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 17 Wed 05 PM 9600 FT 2.6 C 13.9 C 0.0 C 47% NE 7 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 18 Wed 06 PM 9700 FT 2.9 C 13.6 C 0.0 C 46% NE 7 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 19 Wed 07 PM 9800 FT 3.0 C 13.5 C 0.0 C 46% NE 7 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 20 Wed 08 PM 9900 FT 3.0 C 13.5 C 0.0 C 44% NE 7 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 21 Wed 09 PM 9600 FT 3.2 C 13.3 C 0.0 C 41% NNE 9 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 22 Wed 10 PM 9700 FT 3.2 C 13.3 C 0.0 C 40% NNE 13 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 23 Wed 11 PM 9500 FT 3.2 C 13.3 C 0.0 C 41% NNE 9 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 24 Thu 12 AM 9300 FT 3.4 C 13.1 C 0.0 C 41% NNE 8 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 25 Thu 01 AM 9100 FT 3.5 C 13.0 C 0.0 C 40% N 9 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 26 Thu 02 AM 9100 FT 3.4 C 13.1 C 0.0 C 40% N 10 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 27 Thu 03 AM 9200 FT 3.2 C 13.3 C 0.0 C 41% N 10 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 28 Thu 04 AM 9300 FT 3.0 C 13.5 C 0.0 C 42% N 10 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 29 Thu 05 AM 9500 FT 3.0 C 13.5 C 0.0 C 44% NNW 10 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 30 Thu 06 AM 9600 FT 2.7 C 13.8 C 0.0 C 46% NNW 9 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 31 Thu 07 AM 9700 FT 2.6 C 13.9 C 0.0 C 48% NNW 8 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 32 Thu 08 AM 9700 FT 2.6 C 13.9 C 0.0 C 48% NNW 6 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 33 Thu 09 AM 9700 FT 2.6 C 13.9 C 0.0 C 49% NW 5 KT 6.1 C/KM 0% 34 Thu 10 AM 9600 FT 2.8 C 13.7 C 0.0 C 48% NW 3 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 35 Thu 11 AM 9500 FT 3.1 C 13.4 C 0.0 C 47% WNW 4 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 36 Thu 12 PM 9500 FT 3.4 C 13.1 C 0.0 C 44% W 6 KT 6.1 C/KM 0% 37 Thu 01 PM 9500 FT 3.8 C 12.7 C 0.0 C 41% W 8 KT 6.1 C/KM 0% 38 Thu 02 PM 9700 FT 4.1 C 12.4 C 0.0 C 37% W 12 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 39 Thu 03 PM 9800 FT 4.1 C 12.4 C 0.0 C 35% WNW 14 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 40 Thu 04 PM 9800 FT 4.8 C 11.7 C 0.0 C 33% WNW 15 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 41 Thu 05 PM 10200 FT 5.5 C 11.0 C 0.0 C 32% NW 16 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 42 Thu 06 PM 10600 FT 6.1 C 10.4 C 0.0 C 31% WNW 17 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 43 Thu 07 PM 10700 FT 6.7 C 9.8 C 0.0 C 30% WNW 17 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 44 Thu 08 PM 10800 FT 7.1 C 9.4 C 0.0 C 29% WNW 14 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 45 Thu 09 PM 11000 FT 7.4 C 9.1 C 0.0 C 28% WNW 14 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 46 Thu 10 PM 11100 FT 7.6 C 8.9 C 0.0 C 27% WNW 14 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 47 Thu 11 PM 11100 FT 7.7 C 8.8 C 0.0 C 27% WNW 15 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 48 Fri 12 AM 11200 FT 7.9 C 8.6 C 0.0 C 27% W 16 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 49 Fri 01 AM 11100 FT 7.6 C 8.9 C 0.0 C 27% W 18 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 50 Fri 02 AM 11400 FT 7.6 C 8.9 C 0.0 C 28% W 18 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 51 Fri 03 AM 11100 FT 7.8 C 8.7 C 0.0 C 29% WNW 19 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 52 Fri 04 AM 10900 FT 7.7 C 8.8 C 0.0 C 29% WNW 18 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 53 Fri 05 AM 10900 FT 7.7 C 8.8 C 0.0 C 29% W 16 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 54 Fri 06 AM 10800 FT 7.6 C 8.9 C 0.0 C 28% W 18 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 55 Fri 07 AM 10900 FT 7.7 C 8.8 C 0.0 C 28% W 23 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 56 Fri 08 AM 10900 FT 7.7 C 8.8 C 0.0 C 28% W 23 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 57 Fri 09 AM 10800 FT 7.3 C 9.2 C 0.0 C 28% W 23 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 58 Fri 10 AM 10900 FT 7.1 C 9.4 C 0.0 C 31% W 22 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 59 Fri 11 AM 11000 FT 6.2 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 36% W 23 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 60 Fri 12 PM 10800 FT 6.1 C 10.4 C 0.0 C 36% WSW 23 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 61 Fri 01 PM 10900 FT 6.0 C 10.5 C 0.0 C 37% W 24 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 62 Fri 02 PM 11000 FT 5.8 C 10.7 C 0.0 C 38% W 22 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 63 Fri 03 PM 10800 FT 6.6 C 9.9 C 0.0 C 33% W 22 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 64 Fri 04 PM 10500 FT 7.1 C 9.4 C 0.0 C 27% WNW 23 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 65 Fri 05 PM 10300 FT 7.4 C 9.1 C 0.0 C 25% WNW 21 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 66 Fri 06 PM 10100 FT 7.4 C 9.1 C 0.0 C 23% WNW 21 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 67 Fri 07 PM 9900 FT 7.1 C 9.4 C 0.0 C 21% NW 21 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 68 Fri 08 PM 10100 FT 6.4 C 10.1 C 0.0 C 29% WNW 29 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 69 Fri 09 PM 9800 FT 5.1 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 36% WNW 28 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 70 Fri 10 PM 9700 FT 4.9 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 34% WNW 27 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 71 Fri 11 PM 9000 FT 3.4 C 13.1 C 0.0 C 33% WNW 26 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 72 Sat 12 AM 8300 FT 2.8 C 13.7 C 0.0 C 31% WNW 27 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 73 Sat 01 AM 7900 FT 3.1 C 13.4 C 0.0 C 28% WNW 28 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 74 Sat 02 AM 7700 FT 3.0 C 13.5 C 0.0 C 27% NW 27 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 75 Sat 03 AM 7400 FT 2.7 C 13.8 C 0.0 C 28% NW 26 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 76 Sat 04 AM 7200 FT 2.6 C 13.9 C 0.0 C 27% WNW 25 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 77 Sat 05 AM 7100 FT 2.5 C 14.0 C 0.0 C 26% WNW 23 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 78 Sat 06 AM 7100 FT 2.5 C 14.0 C 0.0 C 26% WNW 20 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 79 Sat 07 AM 7200 FT 2.5 C 14.0 C 0.0 C 26% WNW 18 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 80 Sat 08 AM 7200 FT 3.0 C 13.5 C 0.0 C 25% W 17 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 81 Sat 09 AM 7100 FT 3.5 C 13.0 C 0.0 C 26% W 19 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 82 Sat 10 AM 7100 FT 3.9 C 12.6 C 0.0 C 28% WSW 18 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 83 Sat 11 AM 7500 FT 4.3 C 12.2 C 0.0 C 30% WSW 17 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 84 Sat 12 PM 8500 FT 4.9 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 33% SW 17 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 85 Sat 01 PM 9100 FT 5.5 C 11.0 C 0.0 C 36% SW 18 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 86 Sat 02 PM 9400 FT 5.8 C 10.7 C 0.0 C 36% SW 21 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 87 Sat 03 PM 9800 FT 6.2 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 34% SW 24 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 88 Sat 04 PM 10100 FT 6.9 C 9.6 C 0.0 C 32% SW 24 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 89 Sat 05 PM 10200 FT 7.4 C 9.1 C 0.0 C 30% WSW 20 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 90 Sat 06 PM 10500 FT 7.7 C 8.8 C 0.0 C 30% WSW 16 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 91 Sat 07 PM 10600 FT 7.9 C 8.6 C 0.0 C 28% WSW 16 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 92 Sat 08 PM 10700 FT 7.5 C 9.0 C 0.0 C 27% SW 15 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 93 Sat 09 PM 10800 FT 6.5 C 10.0 C 0.0 C 28% SW 24 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 94 Sat 10 PM 11200 FT 6.3 C 10.2 C 0.0 C 35% SW 21 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 95 Sat 11 PM 11200 FT 5.6 C 10.9 C 0.0 C 38% WSW 20 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 96 Sun 12 AM 11400 FT 5.2 C 11.3 C 0.0 C 42% SW 17 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 97 Sun 01 AM 11200 FT 5.5 C 11.0 C 0.0 C 47% WSW 19 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 98 Sun 02 AM 10700 FT 6.9 C 9.6 C 0.0 C 39% W 15 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 99 Sun 03 AM 10500 FT 6.4 C 10.1 C 0.0 C 43% WSW 16 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 100 Sun 04 AM 10400 FT 6.2 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 43% WSW 14 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 101 Sun 05 AM 10400 FT 6.2 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 42% WSW 13 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 102 Sun 06 AM 10800 FT 5.9 C 10.6 C 0.0 C 45% WSW 13 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 103 Sun 07 AM 11000 FT 5.9 C 10.6 C 0.0 C 46% WSW 15 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 104 Sun 08 AM 11100 FT 5.6 C 10.9 C 0.0 C 45% WSW 14 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 105 Sun 09 AM 11200 FT 5.4 C 11.1 C 0.0 C 47% SW 12 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 106 Sun 10 AM 11000 FT 5.2 C 11.3 C 0.0 C 50% SW 14 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 107 Sun 11 AM 10700 FT 4.3 C 12.2 C 0.0 C 50% WSW 21 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 108 Sun 12 PM 10700 FT 4.2 C 12.3 C 0.0 C 52% WSW 23 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 109 Sun 01 PM 10900 FT 5.1 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 54% WSW 25 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 110 Sun 02 PM 11100 FT 4.4 C 12.1 C 0.0 C 59% WSW 18 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 111 Sun 03 PM 10300 FT 5.2 C 11.3 C 0.0 C 47% W 21 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 112 Sun 04 PM 10200 FT 5.5 C 11.0 C 0.0 C 39% W 23 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 113 Sun 05 PM 10200 FT 5.0 C 11.5 C 0.0 C 35% W 25 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 114 Sun 06 PM 10100 FT 5.5 C 11.0 C 0.0 C 31% W 21 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 115 Sun 07 PM 10200 FT 4.6 C 11.9 C 0.0 C 35% W 20 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 116 Sun 08 PM 10000 FT 3.5 C 13.0 C 0.0 C 36% WNW 17 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 117 Sun 09 PM 10100 FT 3.7 C 12.8 C 0.0 C 42% WSW 6 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 118 Sun 10 PM 10000 FT 2.9 C 13.6 C 0.0 C 45% WSW 11 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 119 Sun 11 PM 9800 FT 2.4 C 14.1 C 0.0 C 52% WSW 10 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 120 Mon 12 AM 9600 FT 2.5 C 14.0 C 0.0 C 55% W 7 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% FORECAST HOURS 123-180 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 123 Mon 03 AM 9600 FT 1.5 C 15.0 C 0.0 C 66% WSW 13 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 126 Mon 06 AM 7600 FT 0.3 C 16.2 C 0.0 C 46% WSW 12 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 129 Mon 09 AM 6700 FT -1.9 C 18.4 C 0.0 C 40% WNW 14 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 132 Mon 12 PM 6800 FT -2.5 C 19.0 C 0.0 C 44% WNW 17 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 135 Mon 03 PM 6200 FT -2.3 C 18.8 C 0.0 C 24% NW 18 KT 5.8 C/KM 0% 138 Mon 06 PM 6800 FT -1.7 C 18.2 C 0.0 C 26% NNW 16 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 141 Mon 09 PM 7000 FT -1.9 C 18.4 C 0.0 C 28% WSW 8 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 144 Tue 12 AM 7000 FT -2.1 C 18.6 C 0.0 C 31% NNW 10 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 147 Tue 03 AM 7000 FT -2.1 C 18.6 C 0.0 C 33% NW 7 KT 5.7 C/KM 0% 150 Tue 06 AM 6800 FT -2.1 C 18.6 C 0.0 C 30% WSW 9 KT 5.6 C/KM 0% 153 Tue 09 AM 6700 FT -2.0 C 18.5 C 0.0 C 31% WSW 11 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 156 Tue 12 PM 7600 FT -1.0 C 17.5 C 0.0 C 31% SW 8 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 159 Tue 03 PM 8400 FT 1.4 C 15.1 C 0.0 C 32% SSW 13 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 162 Tue 06 PM 8600 FT 3.7 C 12.8 C 0.0 C 25% SSW 15 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 165 Tue 09 PM 8800 FT 5.3 C 11.2 C 0.0 C 18% SSW 17 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 168 Wed 12 AM 9600 FT 7.1 C 9.4 C 0.0 C 18% SW 23 KT 9.1 C/KM 0% 171 Wed 03 AM 9600 FT 6.9 C 9.6 C 0.0 C 22% WSW 22 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 174 Wed 06 AM 8700 FT 5.0 C 11.5 C 0.0 C 47% SW 19 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% 177 Wed 09 AM 8300 FT 2.9 C 13.6 C 0.0 C 45% WSW 13 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 180 Wed 12 PM 8900 FT 3.5 C 13.0 C 0.0 C 43% S 22 KT 7.5 C/KM 0%