GFS-DERIVED GREAT SALT LAKE-EFFECT FORECAST GUIDANCE ************************************************************** * THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL, AUTOMATED AND UNOFFICIAL FORECAST * ************************************************************** CREATED/MAINTAINED BY TREVOR ALCOTT AND JIM STEENBURGH BASED PARTLY ON ALCOTT ET AL. (2012, WEATHER AND FORECASTING) Contact: jim.steenburgh@utah.edu 7-DAY MEDIAN GREAT SALT LAKE (SOUTH ARM) TEMPERATURE FROM AVHRR 24.6 C CLIMATOLOGICAL LAKE TEMPERATURE 25.3 C LAKE TEMPERATURE USED IN CALCULATIONS 25.0 C For more on GSL temperatures: http://home.chpc.utah.edu/~u0198116/AVHRR/gsltemp.html 07-05-2025 12Z GFS FORECAST HOURS 0-120 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 0 Sat 06 AM 12400 FT 10.8 C 14.2 C 0.0 C 29% SSW 12 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 1 Sat 07 AM 12100 FT 10.5 C 14.5 C 0.0 C 30% SW 14 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 2 Sat 08 AM 11800 FT 10.2 C 14.8 C 0.0 C 31% SW 16 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 3 Sat 09 AM 11300 FT 10.4 C 14.6 C 0.0 C 30% SW 19 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 4 Sat 10 AM 11300 FT 10.3 C 14.7 C 0.0 C 27% SW 22 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 5 Sat 11 AM 11900 FT 10.3 C 14.7 C 0.0 C 23% SSW 20 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 6 Sat 12 PM 12200 FT 11.1 C 13.9 C 0.0 C 24% SSW 18 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 7 Sat 01 PM 12300 FT 11.3 C 13.7 C 0.0 C 27% SSW 20 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 8 Sat 02 PM 12300 FT 11.8 C 13.2 C 0.0 C 28% SSW 20 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 9 Sat 03 PM 12400 FT 12.0 C 13.0 C 0.0 C 27% SSW 17 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 10 Sat 04 PM 12300 FT 12.4 C 12.6 C 0.0 C 24% SW 18 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 11 Sat 05 PM 12100 FT 12.7 C 12.3 C 0.0 C 23% SW 18 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% 12 Sat 06 PM 12100 FT 12.7 C 12.3 C 0.0 C 23% WSW 17 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% 13 Sat 07 PM 12100 FT 13.1 C 11.9 C 0.0 C 22% WSW 17 KT 8.8 C/KM 0% 14 Sat 08 PM 12000 FT 13.0 C 12.0 C 0.0 C 21% WSW 14 KT 8.8 C/KM 0% 15 Sat 09 PM 12000 FT 12.9 C 12.1 C 0.0 C 19% W 11 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 16 Sat 10 PM 12000 FT 12.9 C 12.1 C 0.0 C 18% W 10 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 17 Sat 11 PM 12000 FT 12.6 C 12.4 C 0.0 C 18% WNW 11 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 18 Sun 12 AM 12100 FT 12.1 C 12.9 C 0.0 C 20% NNW 9 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 19 Sun 01 AM 12000 FT 11.7 C 13.3 C 0.0 C 23% NNE 4 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 20 Sun 02 AM 12000 FT 11.6 C 13.4 C 0.0 C 23% NE 3 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 21 Sun 03 AM 12000 FT 11.6 C 13.4 C 0.0 C 24% NE 2 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 22 Sun 04 AM 11900 FT 11.6 C 13.4 C 0.0 C 25% ENE 2 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 23 Sun 05 AM 11900 FT 11.4 C 13.6 C 0.0 C 27% SE 2 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 24 Sun 06 AM 11900 FT 11.3 C 13.7 C 0.0 C 29% SSE 2 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 25 Sun 07 AM 11900 FT 11.0 C 14.0 C 0.0 C 29% S 3 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 26 Sun 08 AM 11900 FT 11.0 C 14.0 C 0.0 C 29% SSW 5 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 27 Sun 09 AM 11900 FT 11.1 C 13.9 C 0.0 C 30% SSW 7 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 28 Sun 10 AM 12000 FT 11.1 C 13.9 C 0.0 C 30% SW 7 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 29 Sun 11 AM 12000 FT 11.1 C 13.9 C 0.0 C 30% SW 8 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 30 Sun 12 PM 11900 FT 11.3 C 13.7 C 0.0 C 29% SW 8 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 31 Sun 01 PM 11800 FT 11.6 C 13.4 C 0.0 C 27% SW 9 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 32 Sun 02 PM 11800 FT 11.8 C 13.2 C 0.0 C 23% WSW 10 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 33 Sun 03 PM 11900 FT 12.1 C 12.9 C 0.0 C 21% WSW 11 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 34 Sun 04 PM 12600 FT 12.6 C 12.4 C 0.0 C 21% SW 11 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 35 Sun 05 PM 12700 FT 12.8 C 12.2 C 0.0 C 20% WSW 10 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 36 Sun 06 PM 12500 FT 12.9 C 12.1 C 0.0 C 19% W 10 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 37 Sun 07 PM 12300 FT 13.1 C 11.9 C 0.0 C 18% W 12 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% 38 Sun 08 PM 12000 FT 13.4 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 17% WSW 12 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 39 Sun 09 PM 12200 FT 13.7 C 11.3 C 0.0 C 16% WSW 10 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 40 Sun 10 PM 12300 FT 13.6 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 16% SW 8 KT 9.0 C/KM 0% 41 Sun 11 PM 12400 FT 13.5 C 11.5 C 0.0 C 15% WSW 8 KT 9.0 C/KM 0% 42 Mon 12 AM 12400 FT 13.5 C 11.5 C 0.0 C 15% WSW 6 KT 9.1 C/KM 0% 43 Mon 01 AM 12400 FT 13.6 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 15% W 4 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 44 Mon 02 AM 12400 FT 13.6 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 15% WSW 4 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 45 Mon 03 AM 12300 FT 13.6 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 16% WSW 4 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 46 Mon 04 AM 12200 FT 13.6 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 16% WSW 5 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 47 Mon 05 AM 12200 FT 13.6 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 16% W 6 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 48 Mon 06 AM 12000 FT 13.6 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 17% WSW 6 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 49 Mon 07 AM 12000 FT 13.5 C 11.5 C 0.0 C 17% WSW 5 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 50 Mon 08 AM 12000 FT 13.4 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 17% SW 5 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 51 Mon 09 AM 11900 FT 13.4 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 17% SW 6 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 52 Mon 10 AM 11800 FT 13.4 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 16% SW 6 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 53 Mon 11 AM 11900 FT 13.5 C 11.5 C 0.0 C 16% SSW 6 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 54 Mon 12 PM 12000 FT 13.5 C 11.5 C 0.0 C 16% SSW 6 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 55 Mon 01 PM 12400 FT 13.9 C 11.1 C 0.0 C 15% SSW 8 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 56 Mon 02 PM 12600 FT 14.3 C 10.7 C 0.0 C 15% SSW 7 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 57 Mon 03 PM 12600 FT 14.8 C 10.2 C 0.0 C 13% SW 8 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 58 Mon 04 PM 12700 FT 15.0 C 10.0 C 0.0 C 13% WSW 7 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 59 Mon 05 PM 12800 FT 15.1 C 9.9 C 0.0 C 13% W 10 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 60 Mon 06 PM 12800 FT 15.2 C 9.8 C 0.0 C 12% WSW 10 KT 9.0 C/KM 0% 61 Mon 07 PM 12800 FT 15.3 C 9.7 C 0.0 C 12% W 9 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 62 Mon 08 PM 12600 FT 15.2 C 9.8 C 0.0 C 12% W 10 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 63 Mon 09 PM 12200 FT 15.8 C 9.2 C 0.0 C 11% SW 13 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 64 Mon 10 PM 12400 FT 15.9 C 9.1 C 0.0 C 10% WSW 14 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 65 Mon 11 PM 12500 FT 16.2 C 8.8 C 0.0 C 10% WSW 15 KT 9.7 C/KM 0% 66 Tue 12 AM 12500 FT 16.0 C 9.0 C 0.0 C 10% W 9 KT 9.6 C/KM 0% 67 Tue 01 AM 12500 FT 16.1 C 8.9 C 0.0 C 10% WNW 8 KT 9.7 C/KM 0% 68 Tue 02 AM 12400 FT 15.9 C 9.1 C 0.0 C 11% W 5 KT 9.6 C/KM 0% 69 Tue 03 AM 12400 FT 15.6 C 9.4 C 0.0 C 11% SSW 7 KT 9.6 C/KM 0% 70 Tue 04 AM 12500 FT 15.5 C 9.5 C 0.0 C 12% SSW 9 KT 9.5 C/KM 0% 71 Tue 05 AM 12500 FT 15.5 C 9.5 C 0.0 C 14% SSW 5 KT 9.5 C/KM 0% 72 Tue 06 AM 12600 FT 15.0 C 10.0 C 0.0 C 13% S 5 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 73 Tue 07 AM 12600 FT 15.0 C 10.0 C 0.0 C 14% SSW 4 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 74 Tue 08 AM 12500 FT 14.7 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 14% SW 7 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 75 Tue 09 AM 12200 FT 14.8 C 10.2 C 0.0 C 13% WSW 13 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 76 Tue 10 AM 12000 FT 14.6 C 10.4 C 0.0 C 13% SW 11 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 77 Tue 11 AM 12300 FT 14.3 C 10.7 C 0.0 C 12% SSW 10 KT 9.1 C/KM 0% 78 Tue 12 PM 12700 FT 14.7 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 12% SSW 10 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 79 Tue 01 PM 13000 FT 15.1 C 9.9 C 0.0 C 13% SSW 11 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 80 Tue 02 PM 13200 FT 15.8 C 9.2 C 0.0 C 12% SSW 13 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 81 Tue 03 PM 13200 FT 16.2 C 8.8 C 0.0 C 11% SSW 13 KT 9.1 C/KM 0% 82 Tue 04 PM 13000 FT 16.5 C 8.5 C 0.0 C 10% SSW 14 KT 8.8 C/KM 0% 83 Tue 05 PM 12900 FT 16.9 C 8.1 C 0.0 C 9% SSW 14 KT 8.8 C/KM 0% 84 Tue 06 PM 13000 FT 17.0 C 8.0 C 0.0 C 9% SW 12 KT 8.7 C/KM 0% 85 Tue 07 PM 13000 FT 17.1 C 7.9 C 0.0 C 9% SW 11 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 86 Tue 08 PM 13000 FT 17.3 C 7.7 C 0.0 C 8% SW 11 KT 8.7 C/KM 0% 87 Tue 09 PM 13000 FT 17.3 C 7.7 C 0.0 C 8% SSW 11 KT 9.0 C/KM 0% 88 Tue 10 PM 12800 FT 17.4 C 7.6 C 0.0 C 8% SW 15 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 89 Tue 11 PM 12800 FT 17.6 C 7.4 C 0.0 C 8% SW 20 KT 9.5 C/KM 0% 90 Wed 12 AM 12900 FT 17.0 C 8.0 C 0.0 C 9% WSW 25 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 91 Wed 01 AM 12700 FT 16.7 C 8.3 C 0.0 C 7% WSW 24 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 92 Wed 02 AM 12900 FT 16.4 C 8.6 C 0.0 C 7% WSW 20 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 93 Wed 03 AM 12900 FT 15.9 C 9.1 C 0.0 C 8% WSW 21 KT 9.0 C/KM 0% 94 Wed 04 AM 13100 FT 15.3 C 9.7 C 0.0 C 9% SW 19 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 95 Wed 05 AM 12800 FT 14.9 C 10.1 C 0.0 C 10% SW 19 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 96 Wed 06 AM 13000 FT 14.8 C 10.2 C 0.0 C 10% SW 18 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 97 Wed 07 AM 13000 FT 14.6 C 10.4 C 0.0 C 11% SW 20 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 98 Wed 08 AM 12800 FT 14.4 C 10.6 C 0.0 C 11% SW 21 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 99 Wed 09 AM 12500 FT 14.2 C 10.8 C 0.0 C 13% SW 18 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 100 Wed 10 AM 12500 FT 14.3 C 10.7 C 0.0 C 13% SW 19 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 101 Wed 11 AM 13200 FT 14.3 C 10.7 C 0.0 C 13% SW 17 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 102 Wed 12 PM 13400 FT 14.5 C 10.5 C 0.0 C 13% SSW 12 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 103 Wed 01 PM 13600 FT 15.0 C 10.0 C 0.0 C 14% SSW 13 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 104 Wed 02 PM 13800 FT 15.5 C 9.5 C 0.0 C 14% SSW 13 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 105 Wed 03 PM 13900 FT 15.9 C 9.1 C 0.0 C 14% SW 13 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 106 Wed 04 PM 13900 FT 16.4 C 8.6 C 0.0 C 14% SW 14 KT 8.7 C/KM 0% 107 Wed 05 PM 14000 FT 16.7 C 8.3 C 0.0 C 13% SW 16 KT 9.0 C/KM 0% 108 Wed 06 PM 14100 FT 17.5 C 7.5 C 0.0 C 13% SW 19 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 109 Wed 07 PM 14100 FT 17.5 C 7.5 C 0.0 C 13% SW 14 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 110 Wed 08 PM 14000 FT 14.8 C 10.2 C 0.0 C 16% S 18 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 111 Wed 09 PM 14300 FT 17.1 C 7.9 C 0.0 C 19% SSW 20 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 112 Wed 10 PM 13600 FT 17.4 C 7.6 C 0.0 C 17% SW 20 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 113 Wed 11 PM 13200 FT 17.8 C 7.2 C 0.0 C 15% SW 25 KT 9.8 C/KM 0% 114 Thu 12 AM 12600 FT 17.5 C 7.5 C 0.0 C 9% SW 27 KT 9.8 C/KM 0% 115 Thu 01 AM 12600 FT 17.4 C 7.6 C 0.0 C 8% WSW 21 KT 9.8 C/KM 0% 116 Thu 02 AM 12200 FT 15.9 C 9.1 C 0.0 C 17% WSW 16 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 117 Thu 03 AM 12500 FT 13.7 C 11.3 C 0.0 C 24% NW 12 KT 8.7 C/KM 0% 118 Thu 04 AM 12500 FT 13.3 C 11.7 C 0.0 C 29% NNW 14 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 119 Thu 05 AM 12600 FT 12.6 C 12.4 C 0.0 C 32% NNW 18 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% 120 Thu 06 AM 12600 FT 12.2 C 12.8 C 0.0 C 32% NNW 23 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% FORECAST HOURS 123-180 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 123 Thu 09 AM 12500 FT 11.4 C 13.6 C 0.0 C 33% NNW 19 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% 126 Thu 12 PM 12500 FT 11.0 C 14.0 C 0.0 C 30% NW 11 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 129 Thu 03 PM 12600 FT 11.7 C 13.3 C 0.0 C 24% W 10 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 132 Thu 06 PM 12300 FT 12.4 C 12.6 C 0.0 C 19% WNW 12 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 135 Thu 09 PM 12800 FT 13.2 C 11.8 C 0.0 C 19% NW 18 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 138 Fri 12 AM 13100 FT 12.9 C 12.1 C 0.0 C 24% NNW 8 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 141 Fri 03 AM 13100 FT 12.3 C 12.7 C 0.0 C 25% NNW 9 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 144 Fri 06 AM 13000 FT 12.0 C 13.0 C 0.0 C 25% WNW 11 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 147 Fri 09 AM 13000 FT 11.9 C 13.1 C 0.0 C 29% WNW 14 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 150 Fri 12 PM 12700 FT 12.0 C 13.0 C 0.0 C 25% W 11 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 153 Fri 03 PM 12500 FT 13.2 C 11.8 C 0.0 C 22% WSW 13 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 156 Fri 06 PM 12500 FT 14.4 C 10.6 C 0.0 C 19% W 11 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 159 Fri 09 PM 13500 FT 14.9 C 10.1 C 0.0 C 18% W 11 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 162 Sat 12 AM 13600 FT 15.4 C 9.6 C 0.0 C 17% WNW 11 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 165 Sat 03 AM 13800 FT 15.4 C 9.6 C 0.0 C 18% WNW 7 KT 8.7 C/KM 0% 168 Sat 06 AM 13700 FT 15.2 C 9.8 C 0.0 C 19% SW 10 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 171 Sat 09 AM 13300 FT 15.1 C 9.9 C 0.0 C 21% SSW 10 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 174 Sat 12 PM 12800 FT 15.0 C 10.0 C 0.0 C 21% SW 12 KT 9.1 C/KM 0% 177 Sat 03 PM 13500 FT 16.7 C 8.3 C 0.0 C 13% WSW 16 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 180 Sat 06 PM 13600 FT 18.0 C 7.0 C 0.0 C 11% WSW 15 KT 9.5 C/KM 0%