GREAT SALT LAKE-EFFECT FORECAST OUTPUT ************************************************************** * THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL, AUTOMATED AND UNOFFICIAL FORECAST * ************************************************************** CREATED/MAINTAINED BY TREVOR ALCOTT AND JIM STEENBURGH LAST UPDATE: 17:06:18 MDT 2018-10-16 For more on GSL temperatures: http://home.chpc.utah.edu/~u0198116/AVHRR/gsltemp.html 7-DAY MEAN GREAT SALT LAKE TEMPERATURE FROM AVHRR 12.0 C CLIMATOLOGICAL LAKE TEMPERATURE 14.4 C LAKE TEMPERATURE USED IN CALCULATIONS 13.2 C 10-16-2018 18Z NAM12 LAKE-700 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 0 TUE 12 PM 8000 FT -0.3 C 13.5 C 0.0 C 50% ESE 8 KT 5.7 C/KM 0% 3 TUE 3 PM 8100 FT 0.3 C 12.9 C 0.0 C 51% ENE 8 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 6 TUE 6 PM 9300 FT 0.4 C 12.8 C 0.0 C 58% NE 14 KT 5.8 C/KM 0% 9 TUE 9 PM 9100 FT 2.1 C 11.1 C 0.0 C 53% E 9 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 12 WED 12 AM 9000 FT 1.6 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 48% ESE 12 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 15 WED 3 AM 8500 FT 1.9 C 11.3 C 0.0 C 45% ESE 14 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 18 WED 6 AM 8700 FT 1.6 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 45% SE 15 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 21 WED 9 AM 8300 FT 0.3 C 12.9 C 0.0 C 45% ESE 11 KT 6.1 C/KM 0% 24 WED 12 PM 7600 FT 0.1 C 13.1 C 0.0 C 41% ESE 12 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 27 WED 3 PM 8300 FT -0.5 C 13.7 C 0.0 C 45% SE 14 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 30 WED 6 PM 9000 FT 0.0 C 13.2 C 0.0 C 46% ESE 14 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 33 WED 9 PM 8900 FT -0.2 C 13.4 C 0.0 C 49% ESE 5 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 36 THU 12 AM 8700 FT -1.4 C 14.6 C 0.0 C 64% ENE 2 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 39 THU 3 AM 8700 FT -2.4 C 15.6 C 0.0 C 84% NE 4 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 42 THU 6 AM 8500 FT -2.9 C 16.1 C 0.0 C 80% NE 8 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 45 THU 9 AM 8400 FT -3.0 C 16.2 C 0.0 C 70% NNE 8 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 48 THU 12 PM 8300 FT -2.6 C 15.8 C 0.0 C 66% NNE 6 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 51 THU 3 PM 8200 FT -1.6 C 14.9 C 0.0 C 59% N 7 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 54 THU 6 PM 8000 FT -0.6 C 13.9 C 0.0 C 53% NNW 7 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 57 THU 9 PM 8300 FT -0.6 C 13.8 C 0.0 C 52% N 12 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 60 FRI 12 AM 8100 FT -0.4 C 13.6 C 0.0 C 50% N 14 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 63 FRI 3 AM 8400 FT -0.5 C 13.7 C 0.0 C 53% N 15 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 66 FRI 6 AM 8500 FT -0.1 C 13.3 C 0.0 C 55% N 14 KT 6.1 C/KM 0% 69 FRI 9 AM 8900 FT 0.3 C 12.9 C 0.0 C 56% NNE 15 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 72 FRI 12 PM 9100 FT 0.7 C 12.5 C 0.0 C 53% NNE 14 KT 5.5 C/KM 0% 75 FRI 3 PM 9000 FT 2.5 C 10.7 C 0.0 C 50% NE 12 KT 5.7 C/KM 0% 78 FRI 6 PM 9200 FT 4.1 C 9.1 C 0.0 C 50% ENE 12 KT 5.8 C/KM 0% 81 FRI 9 PM 9100 FT 4.5 C 8.7 C 0.0 C 47% ENE 11 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 84 SAT 12 AM 8700 FT 4.7 C 8.5 C 0.0 C 35% E 9 KT 6.1 C/KM 0% 10-16-2018 18Z GFS LAKE-700 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 0 TUE 12 PM 6300 FT -0.7 C 13.9 C 0.0 C 40% E 12 KT 5.7 C/KM 0% 3 TUE 3 PM 7400 FT -0.1 C 13.3 C 0.0 C 43% E 10 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 6 TUE 6 PM 7900 FT 0.3 C 12.9 C 0.0 C 42% ENE 16 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 9 TUE 9 PM 7600 FT 1.1 C 12.1 C 0.0 C 37% ENE 18 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 12 WED 12 AM 7800 FT 1.2 C 12.1 C 0.0 C 38% E 12 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 15 WED 3 AM 7600 FT 0.9 C 12.3 C 0.0 C 36% ESE 8 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 18 WED 6 AM 7500 FT 0.3 C 12.9 C 0.0 C 37% SE 6 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 21 WED 9 AM 7400 FT -0.5 C 13.7 C 0.0 C 38% SE 5 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 24 WED 12 PM 7300 FT -0.8 C 14.0 C 0.0 C 39% ESE 4 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 27 WED 3 PM 7900 FT -1.5 C 14.8 C 0.0 C 41% SE 10 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 30 WED 6 PM 8200 FT -1.4 C 14.6 C 0.0 C 45% SE 10 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 33 WED 9 PM 8200 FT -1.5 C 14.7 C 0.0 C 47% ESE 8 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 36 THU 12 AM 8000 FT -1.5 C 14.7 C 0.0 C 47% ESE 8 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 39 THU 3 AM 7700 FT -1.9 C 15.1 C 0.0 C 46% SE 5 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 42 THU 6 AM 7500 FT -2.3 C 15.5 C 0.0 C 48% NNE 3 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 45 THU 9 AM 7400 FT -2.5 C 15.7 C 0.0 C 50% NNE 6 KT 6.1 C/KM 0% 48 THU 12 PM 7500 FT -2.6 C 15.8 C 0.0 C 52% NNE 5 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 51 THU 3 PM 7700 FT -1.6 C 14.8 C 0.0 C 49% N 5 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 54 THU 6 PM 7600 FT -1.0 C 14.2 C 0.0 C 43% N 7 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 57 THU 9 PM 7600 FT -0.3 C 13.6 C 0.0 C 40% N 12 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 60 FRI 12 AM 7800 FT 0.0 C 13.2 C 0.0 C 39% N 13 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 63 FRI 3 AM 7900 FT 0.3 C 12.9 C 0.0 C 41% N 12 KT 6.1 C/KM 0% 66 FRI 6 AM 7800 FT 0.6 C 12.6 C 0.0 C 40% NNE 11 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 69 FRI 9 AM 7800 FT 1.0 C 12.2 C 0.0 C 40% NNE 11 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 72 FRI 12 PM 7800 FT 1.6 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 37% NE 10 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 75 FRI 3 PM 8100 FT 2.5 C 10.7 C 0.0 C 35% NE 9 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 78 FRI 6 PM 8600 FT 3.2 C 10.0 C 0.0 C 35% NE 8 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 81 FRI 9 PM 8800 FT 3.7 C 9.5 C 0.0 C 34% ENE 8 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 84 SAT 12 AM 8700 FT 4.3 C 8.9 C 0.0 C 32% E 8 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 87 SAT 3 AM 8600 FT 4.3 C 8.9 C 0.0 C 31% ESE 7 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 90 SAT 6 AM 8700 FT 4.0 C 9.2 C 0.0 C 30% SE 7 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 93 SAT 9 AM 8500 FT 4.0 C 9.2 C 0.0 C 28% SE 8 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 96 SAT 12 PM 8300 FT 4.0 C 9.2 C 0.0 C 25% SSE 10 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 99 SAT 3 PM 9100 FT 3.9 C 9.3 C 0.0 C 29% SSE 11 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 102 SAT 6 PM 9800 FT 3.9 C 9.3 C 0.0 C 32% SE 14 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 105 SAT 9 PM 9700 FT 3.5 C 9.7 C 0.0 C 33% SSE 11 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 108 SUN 12 AM 9500 FT 3.2 C 10.0 C 0.0 C 33% SW 8 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 111 SUN 3 AM 9400 FT 2.5 C 10.7 C 0.0 C 31% SW 6 KT 5.8 C/KM 0% 114 SUN 6 AM 9400 FT 2.5 C 10.7 C 0.0 C 32% SSW 7 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 117 SUN 9 AM 9600 FT 2.7 C 10.5 C 0.0 C 35% SSW 8 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 120 SUN 12 PM 10000 FT 3.3 C 9.9 C 0.0 C 39% SW 8 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 123 SUN 3 PM 10500 FT 3.9 C 9.3 C 0.0 C 42% SSW 7 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 126 SUN 6 PM 10700 FT 4.4 C 8.8 C 0.0 C 43% S 6 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 129 SUN 9 PM 10800 FT 4.2 C 9.0 C 0.0 C 43% S 8 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 132 MON 12 AM 10700 FT 3.9 C 9.3 C 0.0 C 44% S 7 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 135 MON 3 AM 10500 FT 3.4 C 9.8 C 0.0 C 46% SSW 7 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 138 MON 6 AM 10400 FT 3.1 C 10.1 C 0.0 C 49% SSW 4 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 141 MON 9 AM 10300 FT 2.9 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 49% S 2 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 144 MON 12 PM 10200 FT 2.9 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 50% SSE 3 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 147 MON 3 PM 10000 FT 3.1 C 10.1 C 0.0 C 49% S 3 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 150 MON 6 PM 10100 FT 3.2 C 10.0 C 0.0 C 48% SSW 1 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 153 MON 9 PM 10100 FT 2.7 C 10.5 C 0.0 C 50% N 1 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 156 TUE 12 AM 10000 FT 2.5 C 10.7 C 0.0 C 51% NNE 1 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 159 TUE 3 AM 9900 FT 2.2 C 11.0 C 0.0 C 51% WNW 2 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 162 TUE 6 AM 9700 FT 1.9 C 11.3 C 0.0 C 53% WNW 2 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 165 TUE 9 AM 9600 FT 1.6 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 54% WNW 3 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 168 TUE 12 PM 9600 FT 1.5 C 11.8 C 0.0 C 54% WNW 4 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 171 TUE 3 PM 9600 FT 1.8 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 53% WNW 5 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 174 TUE 6 PM 9500 FT 2.0 C 11.2 C 0.0 C 50% NW 6 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 177 TUE 9 PM 9400 FT 2.1 C 11.1 C 0.0 C 46% NW 5 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 180 WED 12 AM 9400 FT 1.6 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 48% WNW 6 KT 6.4 C/KM 0%