################################################ # # # EXPERIMENTAL GREAT SALT LAKE EFFECT FORECAST # # # ################################################ CREATED BY TREVOR ALCOTT ~ trevor.alcott@utah.edu LAST UPDATE: 2013-06-19 05:30:39 MOUNTAIN TIME SEE weather.utah.edu/gsl FOR AVHRR LAKE TEMPERATURE MAPS COURTESY ERIC CROSMAN AND JOHN HOREL WEEKLY AVERAGED AVHRR-DERIVED TEMPERATURES 7-DAY MEAN ENDING 6/18/2013 NORTH ARM 22.8 C SOUTH ARM 22.19 C CLIMATOLOGICAL LAKE TEMPERATURE 23.1 C LAKE TEMPERATURE USED IN CALCULATIONS 22.8 C 06-19-2013 06Z NAM LAKE-700 TIME SNOW LEVEL T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 GSLE PROB (%) MODE AFFECTED AREAS WED 3 AM 12400 FT 12.2 C 10.5 C 0.0 C 12% SW 34 KT <1 % WED 6 AM 11700 FT 10.6 C 12.2 C 0.0 C 16% SSW 27 KT <1 % WED 9 AM 11600 FT 9.0 C 13.7 C 0.0 C 25% SSW 35 KT <1 % WED 12 PM 10900 FT 5.3 C 17.5 C 0.0 C 38% SSW 19 KT <1 % WED 3 PM 10100 FT 5.6 C 17.2 C 0.0 C 32% SW 17 KT <1 % WED 6 PM 10200 FT 5.3 C 17.4 C 0.0 C 25% W 15 KT <1 % WED 9 PM 9500 FT 3.1 C 19.7 C 0.0 C 39% WNW 15 KT <1 % THU 12 AM 10300 FT 2.4 C 20.4 C 0.0 C 39% WNW 11 KT <1 % THU 3 AM 10400 FT 2.8 C 20.0 C 0.0 C 36% WNW 13 KT <1 % THU 6 AM 10100 FT 2.3 C 20.5 C 0.0 C 33% WNW 8 KT <1 % THU 9 AM 10100 FT 3.0 C 19.8 C 0.0 C 32% SSE 5 KT <1 % THU 12 PM 10600 FT 4.9 C 17.9 C 0.0 C 32% SSE 18 KT <1 % THU 3 PM 10700 FT 6.4 C 16.4 C 0.0 C 31% SSW 19 KT <1 % THU 6 PM 10900 FT 7.1 C 15.6 C 0.0 C 30% SW 13 KT <1 % THU 9 PM 11200 FT 7.8 C 15.0 C 0.0 C 26% SW 12 KT <1 % FRI 12 AM 11200 FT 6.8 C 16.0 C 0.0 C 28% W 5 KT <1 % FRI 3 AM 11100 FT 6.0 C 16.8 C 0.0 C 29% WNW 5 KT <1 % FRI 6 AM 11000 FT 5.5 C 17.2 C 0.0 C 31% W 5 KT <1 % FRI 9 AM 11000 FT 5.6 C 17.1 C 0.0 C 35% SSW 7 KT <1 % FRI 12 PM 11300 FT 6.7 C 16.1 C 0.0 C 32% S 14 KT <1 % FRI 3 PM 11500 FT 7.8 C 15.0 C 0.0 C 28% SSW 15 KT <1 % FRI 6 PM 11700 FT 9.5 C 13.3 C 0.0 C 23% SSW 14 KT <1 % FRI 9 PM 12200 FT 10.3 C 12.4 C 0.0 C 21% SSW 12 KT <1 % SAT 12 AM 12300 FT 10.9 C 11.8 C 0.0 C 18% SSW 23 KT <1 % SAT 3 AM 12300 FT 10.9 C 11.9 C 0.0 C 20% SW 20 KT <1 % SAT 6 AM 12100 FT 8.4 C 14.4 C 0.0 C 31% W 12 KT <1 % SAT 9 AM 11600 FT 6.4 C 16.4 C 0.0 C 42% WNW 12 KT <1 % 06-19-2013 06Z GFS LAKE-700 TIME SNOW LEVEL T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 GSLE PROB (%) MODE AFFECTED AREAS WED 3 AM 12600 FT 13.1 C 9.7 C 0.0 C 12% SW 32 KT <1 % WED 6 AM 12000 FT 10.3 C 12.5 C 0.0 C 18% SSW 26 KT <1 % WED 9 AM 11400 FT 7.8 C 15.0 C 0.0 C 27% SSW 23 KT <1 % WED 12 PM 10400 FT 5.8 C 17.0 C 0.0 C 36% SW 11 KT <1 % WED 3 PM 10500 FT 6.3 C 16.5 C 0.0 C 29% WSW 13 KT <1 % WED 6 PM 10600 FT 6.3 C 16.5 C 0.0 C 14% W 14 KT <1 % WED 9 PM 10000 FT 4.2 C 18.6 C 0.0 C 16% WNW 15 KT <1 % THU 12 AM 10700 FT 4.2 C 18.6 C 0.0 C 21% W 16 KT <1 % THU 3 AM 10700 FT 4.2 C 18.6 C 0.0 C 20% W 17 KT <1 % THU 6 AM 10600 FT 4.2 C 18.5 C 0.0 C 18% W 8 KT <1 % THU 9 AM 10800 FT 5.6 C 17.2 C 0.0 C 16% S 13 KT <1 % THU 12 PM 10900 FT 6.3 C 16.5 C 0.0 C 16% S 21 KT <1 % THU 3 PM 10900 FT 7.2 C 15.5 C 0.0 C 17% SSW 19 KT <1 % THU 6 PM 11100 FT 7.7 C 15.1 C 0.0 C 18% SW 17 KT <1 % THU 9 PM 11500 FT 8.6 C 14.1 C 0.0 C 16% SW 12 KT <1 % FRI 12 AM 11400 FT 7.9 C 14.9 C 0.0 C 15% W 7 KT <1 % FRI 3 AM 11400 FT 7.4 C 15.4 C 0.0 C 16% S 8 KT <1 % FRI 6 AM 11300 FT 7.4 C 15.4 C 0.0 C 17% SSW 9 KT <1 % FRI 9 AM 11300 FT 7.4 C 15.3 C 0.0 C 16% SSW 15 KT <1 % FRI 12 PM 11500 FT 7.8 C 15.0 C 0.0 C 15% SSW 21 KT <1 % FRI 3 PM 11600 FT 9.0 C 13.8 C 0.0 C 14% SSW 19 KT <1 % FRI 6 PM 12100 FT 9.9 C 12.9 C 0.0 C 14% SSW 17 KT <1 % FRI 9 PM 12400 FT 10.9 C 11.9 C 0.0 C 14% S 16 KT <1 % SAT 12 AM 12200 FT 11.2 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 14% SSW 20 KT <1 % SAT 3 AM 11800 FT 9.2 C 13.6 C 0.0 C 17% SW 11 KT <1 % SAT 6 AM 11500 FT 8.3 C 14.5 C 0.0 C 20% SW 11 KT <1 % SAT 9 AM 11000 FT 6.5 C 16.2 C 0.0 C 25% W 10 KT <1 % SAT 12 PM 11000 FT 5.9 C 16.9 C 0.0 C 28% WSW 13 KT <1 % SAT 3 PM 11500 FT 6.5 C 16.3 C 0.0 C 29% SW 16 KT <1 % SAT 6 PM 12200 FT 7.9 C 14.9 C 0.0 C 26% WSW 16 KT <1 % SAT 9 PM 12200 FT 8.9 C 13.8 C 0.0 C 23% WSW 15 KT <1 % SUN 12 AM 12400 FT 10.0 C 12.8 C 0.0 C 21% WSW 14 KT <1 % SUN 3 AM 12200 FT 10.1 C 12.7 C 0.0 C 20% SW 9 KT <1 % SUN 6 AM 12200 FT 10.5 C 12.2 C 0.0 C 17% SSW 14 KT <1 % SUN 9 AM 12100 FT 10.1 C 12.6 C 0.0 C 17% SSW 20 KT <1 % SUN 12 PM 12000 FT 10.1 C 12.6 C 0.0 C 18% S 21 KT <1 % SUN 3 PM 12300 FT 12.3 C 10.5 C 0.0 C 14% SSW 21 KT <1 % SUN 6 PM 12700 FT 13.5 C 9.2 C 0.0 C 13% SSW 25 KT <1 % SUN 9 PM 12400 FT 12.8 C 10.0 C 0.0 C 14% SSW 34 KT <1 % MON 12 AM 11100 FT 8.2 C 14.5 C 0.0 C 32% SW 22 KT <1 % MON 3 AM 11700 FT 6.0 C 16.8 C 0.0 C 61% SSW 30 KT <1 % MON 6 AM 11100 FT 5.6 C 17.1 C 0.0 C 61% SW 26 KT <1 % MON 9 AM 10600 FT 5.1 C 17.7 C 0.0 C 57% SW 20 KT <1 % MON 12 PM 10700 FT 5.3 C 17.5 C 0.0 C 53% SW 19 KT <1 % MON 3 PM 11000 FT 7.0 C 15.8 C 0.0 C 40% SW 18 KT <1 % MON 6 PM 10800 FT 6.9 C 15.9 C 0.0 C 35% WSW 18 KT <1 % MON 9 PM 11200 FT 7.5 C 15.3 C 0.0 C 30% WSW 22 KT <1 % TUE 12 AM 12100 FT 7.0 C 15.8 C 0.0 C 36% W 21 KT <1 % TUE 3 AM 12500 FT 6.0 C 16.8 C 0.0 C 49% W 18 KT <1 % TUE 6 AM 12500 FT 5.8 C 17.0 C 0.0 C 57% W 20 KT <1 % TUE 9 AM 12900 FT 6.2 C 16.6 C 0.0 C 58% W 19 KT <1 % TUE 12 PM 13100 FT 7.2 C 15.6 C 0.0 C 54% WSW 16 KT <1 % TUE 3 PM 13800 FT 9.3 C 13.5 C 0.0 C 47% WSW 15 KT <1 % TUE 6 PM 14300 FT 11.2 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 42% WSW 16 KT <1 % TUE 9 PM 14600 FT 12.5 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 39% WSW 15 KT <1 % WED 12 AM 15400 FT 13.4 C 9.4 C 0.0 C 36% W 15 KT <1 %