GFS-DERIVED GREAT SALT LAKE-EFFECT FORECAST GUIDANCE ************************************************************** * THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL, AUTOMATED AND UNOFFICIAL FORECAST * ************************************************************** CREATED/MAINTAINED BY TREVOR ALCOTT AND JIM STEENBURGH BASED PARTLY ON ALCOTT ET AL. (2012, WEATHER AND FORECASTING) Contact: jim.steenburgh@utah.edu 7-DAY MEDIAN GREAT SALT LAKE (SOUTH ARM) TEMPERATURE FROM AVHRR 3.0 C CLIMATOLOGICAL LAKE TEMPERATURE 2.2 C LAKE TEMPERATURE USED IN CALCULATIONS 2.6 C For more on GSL temperatures: http://home.chpc.utah.edu/~u0198116/AVHRR/gsltemp.html 02-11-2025 06Z GFS FORECAST HOURS 0-120 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 0 Mon 11 PM 0 FT -12.9 C 15.5 C 1.8 C 57% W 11 KT 4.7 C/KM 1% OGDEN-NORTH NORTHERN WASATCH 1 Tue 12 AM 0 FT -12.7 C 15.3 C 1.6 C 56% W 11 KT 4.8 C/KM 1% OGDEN-NORTH NORTHERN WASATCH 2 Tue 01 AM 0 FT -12.9 C 15.5 C 1.8 C 58% W 11 KT 4.9 C/KM 1% OGDEN-NORTH NORTHERN WASATCH 3 Tue 02 AM 0 FT -12.9 C 15.5 C 1.8 C 59% W 12 KT 5.1 C/KM 1% OGDEN-NORTH NORTHERN WASATCH 4 Tue 03 AM 0 FT -13.1 C 15.7 C 2.0 C 61% W 12 KT 5.1 C/KM 1% OGDEN-NORTH NORTHERN WASATCH 5 Tue 04 AM 0 FT -13.4 C 16.0 C 2.3 C 64% W 11 KT 5.2 C/KM 4% OGDEN-NORTH NORTHERN WASATCH 6 Tue 05 AM 0 FT -13.8 C 16.4 C 2.7 C 64% W 10 KT 5.2 C/KM 4% OGDEN OGDEN-NORTH NORTHERN WASATCH 7 Tue 06 AM 0 FT -14.0 C 16.6 C 2.9 C 63% W 10 KT 5.4 C/KM 4% OGDEN NORTHERN WASATCH 8 Tue 07 AM 0 FT -14.1 C 16.7 C 3.0 C 65% W 10 KT 5.7 C/KM 4% OGDEN NORTHERN WASATCH 9 Tue 08 AM 0 FT -14.2 C 16.8 C 3.1 C 66% W 9 KT 6.0 C/KM 4% OGDEN OGDEN-NORTH NORTHERN WASATCH 10 Tue 09 AM 0 FT -14.6 C 17.2 C 3.5 C 69% W 8 KT 6.1 C/KM 3% OGDEN-NORTH NORTHERN WASATCH 11 Tue 10 AM 0 FT -15.2 C 17.8 C 4.1 C 75% W 6 KT 6.1 C/KM 16% OGDEN NORTHERN WASATCH 12 Tue 11 AM 0 FT -15.4 C 18.0 C 4.3 C 75% WNW 8 KT 6.2 C/KM 14% BOUNTIFUL OGDEN 13 Tue 12 PM 0 FT -15.6 C 18.2 C 4.5 C 72% WNW 9 KT 6.4 C/KM 14% BOUNTIFUL 14 Tue 01 PM 0 FT -16.0 C 18.6 C 4.9 C 64% WNW 11 KT 6.6 C/KM 6% BOUNTIFUL 15 Tue 02 PM 0 FT -16.6 C 19.2 C 5.5 C 58% NW 12 KT 6.8 C/KM 7% SLC/COTTONWOODS 16 Tue 03 PM 0 FT -17.2 C 19.8 C 6.1 C 64% NW 14 KT 7.1 C/KM 16% SLC/COTTONWOODS 17 Tue 04 PM 0 FT -17.3 C 19.9 C 6.2 C 75% NW 14 KT 7.1 C/KM 39% SLC/COTTONWOODS 18 Tue 05 PM 0 FT -17.5 C 20.1 C 6.4 C 63% NW 14 KT 6.9 C/KM 18% SLC/COTTONWOODS 19 Tue 06 PM 0 FT -18.4 C 21.0 C 7.3 C 61% NW 13 KT 6.5 C/KM 18% SLC/COTTONWOODS 20 Tue 07 PM 0 FT -18.7 C 21.3 C 7.6 C 59% NW 11 KT 5.7 C/KM 18% SLC/COTTONWOODS 21 Tue 08 PM 0 FT -18.8 C 21.4 C 7.7 C 59% NW 8 KT 5.3 C/KM 24% SLC/COTTONWOODS 22 Tue 09 PM 0 FT -19.1 C 21.7 C 8.0 C 63% NW 8 KT 5.1 C/KM 18% BOUNTIFUL 23 Tue 10 PM 0 FT -19.3 C 21.9 C 8.2 C 62% WNW 13 KT 5.2 C/KM 27% BOUNTIFUL 24 Tue 11 PM 0 FT -19.8 C 22.4 C 8.7 C 62% WNW 14 KT 5.0 C/KM 27% BOUNTIFUL OGDEN 25 Wed 12 AM 0 FT -20.0 C 22.6 C 8.8 C 65% W 16 KT 4.8 C/KM 27% OGDEN NORTHERN WASATCH 26 Wed 01 AM 0 FT -20.4 C 23.0 C 9.2 C 63% W 14 KT 4.6 C/KM 27% OGDEN NORTHERN WASATCH 27 Wed 02 AM 0 FT -20.6 C 23.2 C 9.4 C 65% W 13 KT 4.6 C/KM 27% OGDEN NORTHERN WASATCH 28 Wed 03 AM 0 FT -20.8 C 23.4 C 9.6 C 67% W 13 KT 4.6 C/KM 27% BOUNTIFUL OGDEN 29 Wed 04 AM 0 FT -20.7 C 23.3 C 9.5 C 69% WNW 12 KT 4.6 C/KM 27% BOUNTIFUL OGDEN 30 Wed 05 AM 0 FT -20.8 C 23.4 C 9.6 C 70% W 12 KT 4.7 C/KM 58% BOUNTIFUL OGDEN 31 Wed 06 AM 0 FT -20.9 C 23.5 C 9.7 C 72% W 12 KT 4.7 C/KM 58% OGDEN NORTHERN WASATCH 32 Wed 07 AM 0 FT -21.0 C 23.6 C 9.8 C 73% W 12 KT 4.7 C/KM 58% OGDEN NORTHERN WASATCH 33 Wed 08 AM 0 FT -21.1 C 23.7 C 9.9 C 73% W 12 KT 4.7 C/KM 53% OGDEN OGDEN-NORTH NORTHERN WASATCH 34 Wed 09 AM 0 FT -21.0 C 23.6 C 9.8 C 74% W 13 KT 5.0 C/KM 41% OGDEN-NORTH NORTHERN WASATCH 35 Wed 10 AM 0 FT -21.0 C 23.6 C 9.8 C 73% W 13 KT 5.0 C/KM 41% OGDEN-NORTH NORTHERN WASATCH 36 Wed 11 AM 0 FT -21.0 C 23.6 C 9.8 C 70% W 12 KT 5.1 C/KM 16% OGDEN-NORTH NORTHERN WASATCH 37 Wed 12 PM 0 FT -20.8 C 23.4 C 9.6 C 64% W 12 KT 5.3 C/KM 20% OGDEN OGDEN-NORTH NORTHERN WASATCH 38 Wed 01 PM 0 FT -20.5 C 23.1 C 9.3 C 57% W 14 KT 5.4 C/KM 20% OGDEN NORTHERN WASATCH 39 Wed 02 PM 0 FT -20.3 C 22.9 C 9.1 C 56% W 14 KT 5.3 C/KM 18% OGDEN NORTHERN WASATCH 40 Wed 03 PM 0 FT -20.1 C 22.7 C 8.9 C 57% W 14 KT 5.0 C/KM 18% OGDEN OGDEN-NORTH NORTHERN WASATCH 41 Wed 04 PM 0 FT -19.8 C 22.4 C 8.6 C 57% W 15 KT 5.0 C/KM 14% OGDEN-NORTH NORTHERN WASATCH 42 Wed 05 PM 0 FT -19.5 C 22.1 C 8.3 C 57% W 16 KT 4.7 C/KM 20% OGDEN OGDEN-NORTH NORTHERN WASATCH 43 Wed 06 PM 0 FT -18.7 C 21.3 C 7.5 C 55% WNW 16 KT 4.6 C/KM 14% BOUNTIFUL 44 Wed 07 PM 0 FT -18.5 C 21.1 C 7.3 C 51% NW 15 KT 4.2 C/KM 0% 45 Wed 08 PM 0 FT -17.7 C 20.3 C 6.5 C 48% NW 16 KT 4.3 C/KM 0% 46 Wed 09 PM 0 FT -16.6 C 19.2 C 5.4 C 43% WNW 17 KT 4.5 C/KM 0% 47 Wed 10 PM 0 FT -15.5 C 18.1 C 4.3 C 37% WNW 17 KT 4.7 C/KM 0% 48 Wed 11 PM 0 FT -15.0 C 17.6 C 3.8 C 35% WNW 15 KT 4.6 C/KM 0% 49 Thu 12 AM 0 FT -14.5 C 17.1 C 3.2 C 33% W 14 KT 4.4 C/KM 0% 50 Thu 01 AM 0 FT -14.1 C 16.7 C 2.8 C 33% W 14 KT 4.4 C/KM 0% 51 Thu 02 AM 0 FT -13.9 C 16.5 C 2.6 C 32% WSW 14 KT 4.3 C/KM 0% 52 Thu 03 AM 0 FT -13.0 C 15.6 C 1.7 C 31% SW 14 KT 4.5 C/KM 0% 53 Thu 04 AM 0 FT -11.6 C 14.2 C 0.3 C 30% SW 14 KT 4.7 C/KM 0% 54 Thu 05 AM 0 FT -10.9 C 13.5 C 0.0 C 29% SW 15 KT 4.9 C/KM 0% 55 Thu 06 AM 0 FT -10.8 C 13.4 C 0.0 C 29% SSW 18 KT 4.8 C/KM 0% 56 Thu 07 AM 0 FT -9.9 C 12.5 C 0.0 C 27% SSW 20 KT 4.9 C/KM 0% 57 Thu 08 AM 0 FT -9.3 C 11.9 C 0.0 C 26% SSW 23 KT 4.9 C/KM 0% 58 Thu 09 AM 0 FT -8.2 C 10.8 C 0.0 C 23% SSW 26 KT 4.8 C/KM 0% 59 Thu 10 AM 0 FT -8.2 C 10.8 C 0.0 C 21% SSW 28 KT 4.6 C/KM 0% 60 Thu 11 AM 0 FT -7.9 C 10.5 C 0.0 C 20% SSW 35 KT 4.5 C/KM 0% 61 Thu 12 PM 0 FT -7.8 C 10.4 C 0.0 C 19% SSW 37 KT 4.4 C/KM 0% 62 Thu 01 PM 0 FT -8.2 C 10.8 C 0.0 C 23% SSW 35 KT 4.0 C/KM 0% 63 Thu 02 PM 0 FT -8.5 C 11.1 C 0.0 C 36% SSW 39 KT 3.9 C/KM 0% 64 Thu 03 PM 0 FT -8.3 C 10.9 C 0.0 C 41% SSW 39 KT 4.0 C/KM 0% 65 Thu 04 PM 0 FT -8.0 C 10.6 C 0.0 C 47% SSW 46 KT 4.2 C/KM 0% 66 Thu 05 PM 0 FT -6.8 C 9.4 C 0.0 C 54% SSW 51 KT 4.6 C/KM 0% 67 Thu 06 PM 0 FT -6.1 C 8.7 C 0.0 C 69% SSW 55 KT 5.0 C/KM 0% 68 Thu 07 PM 0 FT -5.2 C 7.8 C 0.0 C 85% SW 56 KT 5.5 C/KM 0% 69 Thu 08 PM 0 FT -5.1 C 7.7 C 0.0 C 88% SW 53 KT 5.7 C/KM 0% 70 Thu 09 PM 0 FT -4.7 C 7.3 C 0.0 C 88% SW 50 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 71 Thu 10 PM 0 FT -4.8 C 7.4 C 0.0 C 91% SW 50 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 72 Thu 11 PM 0 FT -5.0 C 7.6 C 0.0 C 95% SW 44 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 73 Fri 12 AM 0 FT -5.1 C 7.7 C 0.0 C 97% WSW 36 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 74 Fri 01 AM 0 FT -5.3 C 7.9 C 0.0 C 98% WSW 27 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 75 Fri 02 AM 0 FT -5.2 C 7.8 C 0.0 C 98% WSW 23 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 76 Fri 03 AM 0 FT -5.4 C 8.0 C 0.0 C 98% WSW 24 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 77 Fri 04 AM 0 FT -6.1 C 8.7 C 0.0 C 97% WSW 26 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 78 Fri 05 AM 4300 FT -6.4 C 9.0 C 0.0 C 85% WSW 28 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 79 Fri 06 AM 5500 FT -7.0 C 9.6 C 0.0 C 88% W 25 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 80 Fri 07 AM 5800 FT -7.1 C 9.7 C 0.0 C 83% W 29 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 81 Fri 08 AM 5800 FT -6.8 C 9.4 C 0.0 C 85% W 22 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 82 Fri 09 AM 5700 FT -6.8 C 9.4 C 0.0 C 90% WSW 20 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 83 Fri 10 AM 5600 FT -7.3 C 9.9 C 0.0 C 91% W 21 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 84 Fri 11 AM 5600 FT -7.2 C 9.8 C 0.0 C 96% WSW 27 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 85 Fri 12 PM 5800 FT -7.1 C 9.7 C 0.0 C 94% W 26 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 86 Fri 01 PM 5700 FT -7.7 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 91% WSW 24 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 87 Fri 02 PM 5600 FT -7.9 C 10.5 C 0.0 C 90% W 21 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 88 Fri 03 PM 5600 FT -7.5 C 10.1 C 0.0 C 93% W 20 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 89 Fri 04 PM 5600 FT -7.3 C 9.9 C 0.0 C 98% W 22 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 90 Fri 05 PM 5600 FT -7.6 C 10.2 C 0.0 C 94% WNW 21 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 91 Fri 06 PM 5500 FT -7.2 C 9.8 C 0.0 C 98% W 23 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 92 Fri 07 PM 5200 FT -7.3 C 9.9 C 0.0 C 99% WNW 21 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 93 Fri 08 PM 5500 FT -7.7 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 98% WNW 24 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 94 Fri 09 PM 5300 FT -7.8 C 10.4 C 0.0 C 98% WNW 29 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 95 Fri 10 PM 4800 FT -7.9 C 10.5 C 0.0 C 98% WNW 27 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 96 Fri 11 PM 5000 FT -8.4 C 11.0 C 0.0 C 98% NW 26 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 97 Sat 12 AM 5200 FT -8.8 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 97% WNW 28 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 98 Sat 01 AM 5100 FT -9.0 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 97% WNW 26 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 99 Sat 02 AM 5000 FT -9.3 C 11.9 C 0.0 C 97% WNW 26 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 100 Sat 03 AM 4800 FT -9.3 C 11.9 C 0.0 C 97% WNW 28 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 101 Sat 04 AM 4800 FT -9.6 C 12.2 C 0.0 C 97% WNW 29 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 102 Sat 05 AM 4800 FT -9.6 C 12.2 C 0.0 C 98% WNW 25 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 103 Sat 06 AM 4800 FT -9.8 C 12.4 C 0.0 C 97% WNW 32 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 104 Sat 07 AM 4800 FT -10.5 C 13.1 C 0.0 C 97% WNW 30 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 105 Sat 08 AM 4500 FT -11.3 C 13.9 C 0.0 C 89% WNW 30 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 106 Sat 09 AM 0 FT -12.0 C 14.6 C 0.6 C 85% W 28 KT 6.8 C/KM 8% OGDEN NORTHERN WASATCH 107 Sat 10 AM 0 FT -12.5 C 15.1 C 1.1 C 69% WNW 32 KT 6.8 C/KM 2% BOUNTIFUL 108 Sat 11 AM 0 FT -13.3 C 15.9 C 1.9 C 65% WNW 35 KT 6.7 C/KM 1% BOUNTIFUL 109 Sat 12 PM 0 FT -14.1 C 16.7 C 2.7 C 66% WNW 32 KT 5.9 C/KM 3% BOUNTIFUL 110 Sat 01 PM 0 FT -14.2 C 16.8 C 2.8 C 63% WNW 31 KT 5.4 C/KM 3% BOUNTIFUL OGDEN 111 Sat 02 PM 0 FT -13.6 C 16.2 C 2.2 C 64% WNW 29 KT 5.0 C/KM 3% BOUNTIFUL OGDEN 112 Sat 03 PM 0 FT -13.4 C 16.0 C 2.0 C 62% WNW 27 KT 4.6 C/KM 3% BOUNTIFUL OGDEN 113 Sat 04 PM 0 FT -13.3 C 15.9 C 1.9 C 62% WNW 25 KT 3.9 C/KM 1% BOUNTIFUL OGDEN 114 Sat 05 PM 0 FT -13.1 C 15.7 C 1.7 C 64% WNW 25 KT 3.5 C/KM 1% BOUNTIFUL OGDEN 115 Sat 06 PM 0 FT -12.6 C 15.2 C 1.2 C 64% WNW 27 KT 3.3 C/KM 1% BOUNTIFUL 116 Sat 07 PM 0 FT -12.3 C 14.9 C 0.9 C 61% WNW 24 KT 3.0 C/KM 1% BOUNTIFUL 117 Sat 08 PM 0 FT -12.3 C 14.9 C 0.9 C 62% WNW 27 KT 2.8 C/KM 2% BOUNTIFUL 118 Sat 09 PM 0 FT -12.3 C 14.9 C 0.9 C 64% WNW 24 KT 2.7 C/KM 2% BOUNTIFUL 119 Sat 10 PM 0 FT -12.2 C 14.8 C 0.8 C 64% WNW 23 KT 2.7 C/KM 2% BOUNTIFUL 120 Sat 11 PM 0 FT -11.7 C 14.3 C 0.3 C 64% WNW 24 KT 2.8 C/KM 2% BOUNTIFUL FORECAST HOURS 123-180 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 123 Sun 02 AM 0 FT -10.4 C 13.0 C 0.0 C 57% WNW 25 KT 3.0 C/KM 0% 126 Sun 05 AM 0 FT -9.3 C 11.9 C 0.0 C 52% WNW 27 KT 3.5 C/KM 0% 129 Sun 08 AM 0 FT -8.7 C 11.3 C 0.0 C 54% WNW 27 KT 3.9 C/KM 0% 132 Sun 11 AM 0 FT -6.6 C 9.2 C 0.0 C 60% WNW 26 KT 5.0 C/KM 0% 135 Sun 02 PM 0 FT -5.9 C 8.5 C 0.0 C 65% W 25 KT 5.7 C/KM 0% 138 Sun 05 PM 0 FT -5.5 C 8.1 C 0.0 C 90% WNW 24 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 141 Sun 08 PM 0 FT -5.9 C 8.5 C 0.0 C 82% WNW 24 KT 5.8 C/KM 0% 144 Sun 11 PM 0 FT -6.1 C 8.7 C 0.0 C 80% WNW 20 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 147 Mon 02 AM 4900 FT -5.5 C 8.1 C 0.0 C 87% W 23 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 150 Mon 05 AM 0 FT -6.1 C 8.7 C 0.0 C 79% W 25 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 153 Mon 08 AM 5600 FT -6.4 C 9.0 C 0.0 C 90% W 16 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 156 Mon 11 AM 5800 FT -6.7 C 9.3 C 0.0 C 81% WSW 18 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 159 Mon 02 PM 5700 FT -6.0 C 8.6 C 0.0 C 77% WSW 20 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 162 Mon 05 PM 5700 FT -6.7 C 9.3 C 0.0 C 93% W 20 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 165 Mon 08 PM 5100 FT -8.2 C 10.8 C 0.0 C 97% WNW 28 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 168 Mon 11 PM 4800 FT -9.4 C 12.0 C 0.0 C 98% NW 21 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 171 Tue 02 AM 4800 FT -10.1 C 12.7 C 0.0 C 97% NW 17 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 174 Tue 05 AM 4300 FT -10.3 C 12.9 C 0.0 C 97% NNW 17 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 177 Tue 08 AM 0 FT -10.5 C 13.1 C 0.0 C 89% NNW 16 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 180 Tue 11 AM 4300 FT -9.5 C 12.1 C 0.0 C 84% NNE 18 KT 8.2 C/KM 0%