GFS-DERIVED GREAT SALT LAKE-EFFECT FORECAST GUIDANCE ************************************************************** * THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL, AUTOMATED AND UNOFFICIAL FORECAST * ************************************************************** CREATED/MAINTAINED BY TREVOR ALCOTT AND JIM STEENBURGH BASED PARTLY ON ALCOTT ET AL. (2012, WEATHER AND FORECASTING) Contact: jim.steenburgh@utah.edu 7-DAY MEDIAN GREAT SALT LAKE (SOUTH ARM) TEMPERATURE FROM AVHRR 20.5 C CLIMATOLOGICAL LAKE TEMPERATURE 20.8 C LAKE TEMPERATURE USED IN CALCULATIONS 20.6 C For more on GSL temperatures: http://home.chpc.utah.edu/~u0198116/AVHRR/gsltemp.html 06-03-2023 06Z GFS FORECAST HOURS 0-120 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 0 Sat 12 AM 10900 FT 3.9 C 16.7 C 0.0 C 55% NW 6 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 1 Sat 01 AM 10900 FT 3.5 C 17.1 C 0.0 C 58% NW 5 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 2 Sat 02 AM 10700 FT 3.3 C 17.3 C 0.0 C 61% WNW 4 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 3 Sat 03 AM 10600 FT 3.2 C 17.4 C 0.0 C 60% W 4 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 4 Sat 04 AM 10600 FT 3.2 C 17.4 C 0.0 C 60% W 6 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 5 Sat 05 AM 10400 FT 3.2 C 17.4 C 0.0 C 58% W 7 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 6 Sat 06 AM 10300 FT 3.2 C 17.4 C 0.0 C 60% WSW 8 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 7 Sat 07 AM 10300 FT 3.1 C 17.5 C 0.0 C 62% W 7 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 8 Sat 08 AM 10300 FT 2.8 C 17.8 C 0.0 C 64% W 5 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 9 Sat 09 AM 10100 FT 2.5 C 18.1 C 0.0 C 62% WSW 5 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 10 Sat 10 AM 10000 FT 2.6 C 18.0 C 0.0 C 60% WSW 4 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 11 Sat 11 AM 10000 FT 2.8 C 17.8 C 0.0 C 59% WSW 3 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 12 Sat 12 PM 9900 FT 3.1 C 17.5 C 0.0 C 55% SSW 3 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 13 Sat 01 PM 10100 FT 3.6 C 17.0 C 0.0 C 51% SSW 5 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 14 Sat 02 PM 10400 FT 3.9 C 16.7 C 0.0 C 48% SSW 6 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 15 Sat 03 PM 10600 FT 4.5 C 16.1 C 0.0 C 44% S 5 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 16 Sat 04 PM 10400 FT 2.7 C 17.9 C 0.0 C 58% ESE 4 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 17 Sat 05 PM 10400 FT 4.8 C 15.8 C 0.0 C 49% E 8 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 18 Sat 06 PM 10600 FT 5.0 C 15.6 C 0.0 C 49% SSE 10 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 19 Sat 07 PM 10300 FT 4.8 C 15.8 C 0.0 C 45% S 15 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 20 Sat 08 PM 10400 FT 4.1 C 16.5 C 0.0 C 54% S 11 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 21 Sat 09 PM 10600 FT 4.3 C 16.3 C 0.0 C 56% ESE 15 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 22 Sat 10 PM 10900 FT 3.9 C 16.7 C 0.0 C 62% ESE 14 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 23 Sat 11 PM 10700 FT 4.1 C 16.5 C 0.0 C 64% SSE 7 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 24 Sun 12 AM 10500 FT 4.0 C 16.6 C 0.0 C 61% SSE 6 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 25 Sun 01 AM 10300 FT 4.0 C 16.6 C 0.0 C 59% SSE 5 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 26 Sun 02 AM 10300 FT 3.9 C 16.7 C 0.0 C 58% SE 4 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 27 Sun 03 AM 10400 FT 3.7 C 16.9 C 0.0 C 58% SE 4 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 28 Sun 04 AM 10500 FT 3.5 C 17.1 C 0.0 C 60% SE 5 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 29 Sun 05 AM 10400 FT 3.5 C 17.1 C 0.0 C 60% SE 5 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 30 Sun 06 AM 10300 FT 3.3 C 17.3 C 0.0 C 60% SSE 6 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 31 Sun 07 AM 10200 FT 3.2 C 17.4 C 0.0 C 59% SSE 8 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 32 Sun 08 AM 10100 FT 3.2 C 17.4 C 0.0 C 58% SSE 9 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 33 Sun 09 AM 10000 FT 3.3 C 17.3 C 0.0 C 57% SSE 10 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 34 Sun 10 AM 9900 FT 3.2 C 17.4 C 0.0 C 56% SSE 10 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 35 Sun 11 AM 9900 FT 3.2 C 17.4 C 0.0 C 54% SSE 11 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 36 Sun 12 PM 10500 FT 2.4 C 18.2 C 0.0 C 54% S 9 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 37 Sun 01 PM 10800 FT 3.1 C 17.5 C 0.0 C 54% S 9 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 38 Sun 02 PM 11000 FT 3.9 C 16.7 C 0.0 C 54% S 10 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 39 Sun 03 PM 11100 FT 4.8 C 15.8 C 0.0 C 50% S 11 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 40 Sun 04 PM 11300 FT 5.3 C 15.3 C 0.0 C 47% S 11 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 41 Sun 05 PM 11300 FT 5.8 C 14.8 C 0.0 C 46% SSW 12 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 42 Sun 06 PM 11300 FT 6.1 C 14.5 C 0.0 C 45% SSW 11 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 43 Sun 07 PM 11300 FT 6.3 C 14.3 C 0.0 C 43% SSW 9 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 44 Sun 08 PM 11400 FT 6.4 C 14.2 C 0.0 C 42% SSW 8 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 45 Sun 09 PM 11300 FT 6.3 C 14.3 C 0.0 C 41% S 8 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 46 Sun 10 PM 11200 FT 6.2 C 14.4 C 0.0 C 42% S 9 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 47 Sun 11 PM 11000 FT 6.3 C 14.3 C 0.0 C 42% S 9 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 48 Mon 12 AM 10900 FT 6.5 C 14.1 C 0.0 C 43% S 10 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 49 Mon 01 AM 10700 FT 6.9 C 13.7 C 0.0 C 42% SSW 10 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 50 Mon 02 AM 10700 FT 7.1 C 13.5 C 0.0 C 40% WSW 8 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 51 Mon 03 AM 11000 FT 7.4 C 13.2 C 0.0 C 40% W 7 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 52 Mon 04 AM 11200 FT 7.4 C 13.2 C 0.0 C 41% WSW 7 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 53 Mon 05 AM 11300 FT 7.4 C 13.2 C 0.0 C 41% WSW 7 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 54 Mon 06 AM 11400 FT 7.3 C 13.3 C 0.0 C 41% WSW 6 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 55 Mon 07 AM 11500 FT 7.5 C 13.1 C 0.0 C 40% SW 6 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 56 Mon 08 AM 11600 FT 7.7 C 12.9 C 0.0 C 39% SW 5 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 57 Mon 09 AM 11600 FT 7.8 C 12.8 C 0.0 C 39% SW 4 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 58 Mon 10 AM 11500 FT 7.9 C 12.7 C 0.0 C 39% SW 4 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 59 Mon 11 AM 11500 FT 8.0 C 12.6 C 0.0 C 38% SSW 3 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 60 Mon 12 PM 11500 FT 8.3 C 12.3 C 0.0 C 38% SSW 3 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 61 Mon 01 PM 11500 FT 8.6 C 12.0 C 0.0 C 37% S 3 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 62 Mon 02 PM 11400 FT 9.0 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 36% SSW 4 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 63 Mon 03 PM 11300 FT 9.2 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 35% W 3 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 64 Mon 04 PM 11300 FT 9.4 C 11.2 C 0.0 C 33% W 3 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 65 Mon 05 PM 11300 FT 9.6 C 11.0 C 0.0 C 31% NNE 3 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 66 Mon 06 PM 11300 FT 9.1 C 11.5 C 0.0 C 37% ENE 9 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 67 Mon 07 PM 11500 FT 9.0 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 41% ENE 5 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 68 Mon 08 PM 11500 FT 9.4 C 11.2 C 0.0 C 37% E 7 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 69 Mon 09 PM 12100 FT 9.7 C 10.9 C 0.0 C 38% SE 10 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 70 Mon 10 PM 12200 FT 9.8 C 10.8 C 0.0 C 38% SSE 12 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 71 Mon 11 PM 12300 FT 9.7 C 10.9 C 0.0 C 38% SSE 13 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 72 Tue 12 AM 12300 FT 10.1 C 10.5 C 0.0 C 37% S 15 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 73 Tue 01 AM 12200 FT 10.2 C 10.4 C 0.0 C 36% S 15 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 74 Tue 02 AM 12000 FT 10.1 C 10.5 C 0.0 C 37% SSW 12 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 75 Tue 03 AM 11900 FT 9.9 C 10.7 C 0.0 C 38% SSW 9 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 76 Tue 04 AM 11900 FT 9.9 C 10.7 C 0.0 C 38% S 9 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 77 Tue 05 AM 11900 FT 10.0 C 10.6 C 0.0 C 37% S 11 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 78 Tue 06 AM 11900 FT 10.1 C 10.5 C 0.0 C 37% S 11 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 79 Tue 07 AM 12000 FT 10.2 C 10.4 C 0.0 C 37% S 10 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 80 Tue 08 AM 12100 FT 10.3 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 37% S 9 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 81 Tue 09 AM 12200 FT 10.3 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 37% SSE 10 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 82 Tue 10 AM 12200 FT 10.3 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 38% S 13 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 83 Tue 11 AM 12100 FT 10.6 C 10.0 C 0.0 C 37% SSE 13 KT 8.8 C/KM 0% 84 Tue 12 PM 12000 FT 10.9 C 9.7 C 0.0 C 37% SSE 13 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 85 Tue 01 PM 12100 FT 10.9 C 9.7 C 0.0 C 38% SSE 12 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 86 Tue 02 PM 11800 FT 11.1 C 9.5 C 0.0 C 37% S 11 KT 8.8 C/KM 0% 87 Tue 03 PM 12100 FT 11.1 C 9.5 C 0.0 C 38% SSE 6 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 88 Tue 04 PM 12500 FT 11.1 C 9.5 C 0.0 C 38% WSW 5 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 89 Tue 05 PM 12800 FT 9.2 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 53% NW 7 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 90 Tue 06 PM 12500 FT 7.8 C 12.8 C 0.0 C 61% ENE 14 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 91 Tue 07 PM 12500 FT 10.2 C 10.4 C 0.0 C 51% SW 11 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 92 Tue 08 PM 12400 FT 10.2 C 10.4 C 0.0 C 41% S 4 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 93 Tue 09 PM 12400 FT 10.5 C 10.1 C 0.0 C 40% SE 5 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 94 Tue 10 PM 12300 FT 11.1 C 9.5 C 0.0 C 42% ESE 6 KT 8.8 C/KM 0% 95 Tue 11 PM 12300 FT 11.3 C 9.3 C 0.0 C 42% ESE 6 KT 8.8 C/KM 0% 96 Wed 12 AM 12300 FT 11.4 C 9.2 C 0.0 C 46% E 9 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 97 Wed 01 AM 12300 FT 11.3 C 9.3 C 0.0 C 44% ESE 9 KT 9.1 C/KM 0% 98 Wed 02 AM 12000 FT 10.9 C 9.7 C 0.0 C 44% SE 8 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 99 Wed 03 AM 12000 FT 10.7 C 9.9 C 0.0 C 42% SSE 11 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 100 Wed 04 AM 11900 FT 10.3 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 40% SSE 19 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 101 Wed 05 AM 11800 FT 10.1 C 10.5 C 0.0 C 42% SSE 19 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 102 Wed 06 AM 11900 FT 9.8 C 10.8 C 0.0 C 45% SSE 18 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% 103 Wed 07 AM 11900 FT 9.2 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 43% S 23 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 104 Wed 08 AM 11900 FT 9.3 C 11.3 C 0.0 C 39% SSE 18 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 105 Wed 09 AM 11800 FT 9.7 C 10.9 C 0.0 C 43% SSE 14 KT 8.7 C/KM 0% 106 Wed 10 AM 11800 FT 9.2 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 44% SSE 11 KT 8.7 C/KM 0% 107 Wed 11 AM 11800 FT 8.8 C 11.8 C 0.0 C 45% S 10 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 108 Wed 12 PM 11900 FT 8.8 C 11.8 C 0.0 C 47% SSW 8 KT 8.7 C/KM 0% 109 Wed 01 PM 11900 FT 8.5 C 12.1 C 0.0 C 48% WSW 4 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 110 Wed 02 PM 11900 FT 7.5 C 13.1 C 0.0 C 49% NNE 8 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 111 Wed 03 PM 11500 FT 7.7 C 12.9 C 0.0 C 50% NW 18 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 112 Wed 04 PM 11100 FT 5.7 C 14.9 C 0.0 C 61% NW 12 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 113 Wed 05 PM 11100 FT 7.0 C 13.6 C 0.0 C 45% NW 14 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 114 Wed 06 PM 11200 FT 8.1 C 12.5 C 0.0 C 41% NNW 13 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 115 Wed 07 PM 11200 FT 8.6 C 12.0 C 0.0 C 38% NNW 11 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 116 Wed 08 PM 11100 FT 9.2 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 36% SW 7 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 117 Wed 09 PM 11200 FT 9.0 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 38% NNE 8 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 118 Wed 10 PM 11200 FT 8.7 C 11.9 C 0.0 C 40% NNE 5 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 119 Wed 11 PM 11200 FT 8.0 C 12.6 C 0.0 C 45% E 3 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 120 Thu 12 AM 11000 FT 8.9 C 11.7 C 0.0 C 46% ENE 3 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% FORECAST HOURS 123-180 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 123 Thu 03 AM 11100 FT 8.1 C 12.5 C 0.0 C 47% WNW 6 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 126 Thu 06 AM 11700 FT 7.0 C 13.6 C 0.0 C 52% NW 7 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 129 Thu 09 AM 11700 FT 5.9 C 14.7 C 0.0 C 58% WSW 7 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 132 Thu 12 PM 11600 FT 7.0 C 13.6 C 0.0 C 50% NNW 10 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 135 Thu 03 PM 11400 FT 6.6 C 14.0 C 0.0 C 49% NW 16 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 138 Thu 06 PM 11200 FT 7.3 C 13.3 C 0.0 C 46% NW 9 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 141 Thu 09 PM 11200 FT 7.1 C 13.5 C 0.0 C 42% NNW 12 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 144 Fri 12 AM 11700 FT 6.4 C 14.2 C 0.0 C 47% NNW 7 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 147 Fri 03 AM 11700 FT 5.8 C 14.8 C 0.0 C 59% NW 10 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 150 Fri 06 AM 11800 FT 6.1 C 14.5 C 0.0 C 57% WNW 14 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 153 Fri 09 AM 12000 FT 4.6 C 16.0 C 0.0 C 63% WNW 12 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 156 Fri 12 PM 12000 FT 5.4 C 15.2 C 0.0 C 61% NW 9 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 159 Fri 03 PM 11900 FT 5.4 C 15.2 C 0.0 C 54% WNW 12 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 162 Fri 06 PM 12400 FT 5.7 C 14.9 C 0.0 C 67% NW 20 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 165 Fri 09 PM 12100 FT 4.6 C 16.0 C 0.0 C 69% NNW 22 KT 5.8 C/KM 0% 168 Sat 12 AM 12000 FT 6.1 C 14.5 C 0.0 C 59% N 10 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 171 Sat 03 AM 11800 FT 5.8 C 14.8 C 0.0 C 62% NNW 14 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 174 Sat 06 AM 11800 FT 5.4 C 15.2 C 0.0 C 64% NW 13 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 177 Sat 09 AM 11100 FT 5.2 C 15.4 C 0.0 C 63% NW 13 KT 6.1 C/KM 0% 180 Sat 12 PM 10900 FT 5.2 C 15.4 C 0.0 C 58% NW 12 KT 6.1 C/KM 0%