GFS-DERIVED GREAT SALT LAKE-EFFECT FORECAST GUIDANCE ************************************************************** * THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL, AUTOMATED AND UNOFFICIAL FORECAST * ************************************************************** CREATED/MAINTAINED BY TREVOR ALCOTT AND JIM STEENBURGH BASED PARTLY ON ALCOTT ET AL. (2012, WEATHER AND FORECASTING) Contact: jim.steenburgh@utah.edu 7-DAY MEDIAN GREAT SALT LAKE (SOUTH ARM) TEMPERATURE FROM AVHRR 24.4 C CLIMATOLOGICAL LAKE TEMPERATURE 26.0 C LAKE TEMPERATURE USED IN CALCULATIONS 25.2 C For more on GSL temperatures: http://home.chpc.utah.edu/~u0198116/AVHRR/gsltemp.html 07-12-2024 06Z GFS FORECAST HOURS 0-120 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 0 Fri 12 AM 13600 FT 18.3 C 6.9 C 0.0 C 8% SE 3 KT 9.5 C/KM 0% 1 Fri 01 AM 13600 FT 18.1 C 7.1 C 0.0 C 8% SE 3 KT 9.6 C/KM 0% 2 Fri 02 AM 13700 FT 18.0 C 7.2 C 0.0 C 9% SSE 3 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 3 Fri 03 AM 13600 FT 18.2 C 7.0 C 0.0 C 9% SSW 4 KT 9.5 C/KM 0% 4 Fri 04 AM 13600 FT 18.3 C 6.9 C 0.0 C 9% SW 5 KT 9.5 C/KM 0% 5 Fri 05 AM 13600 FT 18.2 C 7.0 C 0.0 C 9% WSW 4 KT 9.5 C/KM 0% 6 Fri 06 AM 13500 FT 18.2 C 7.0 C 0.0 C 9% WNW 5 KT 9.7 C/KM 0% 7 Fri 07 AM 13500 FT 18.0 C 7.2 C 0.0 C 10% NW 6 KT 9.7 C/KM 0% 8 Fri 08 AM 13500 FT 18.0 C 7.2 C 0.0 C 10% NW 5 KT 9.6 C/KM 0% 9 Fri 09 AM 13500 FT 17.9 C 7.3 C 0.0 C 10% NW 6 KT 9.6 C/KM 0% 10 Fri 10 AM 13500 FT 17.7 C 7.5 C 0.0 C 10% NW 6 KT 9.5 C/KM 0% 11 Fri 11 AM 13500 FT 17.7 C 7.5 C 0.0 C 10% NNW 5 KT 9.5 C/KM 0% 12 Fri 12 PM 13600 FT 17.7 C 7.5 C 0.0 C 10% NNW 5 KT 9.5 C/KM 0% 13 Fri 01 PM 13600 FT 17.7 C 7.5 C 0.0 C 10% NW 5 KT 9.5 C/KM 0% 14 Fri 02 PM 13700 FT 17.7 C 7.5 C 0.0 C 10% WNW 7 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 15 Fri 03 PM 13800 FT 17.9 C 7.3 C 0.0 C 10% W 8 KT 9.1 C/KM 0% 16 Fri 04 PM 13600 FT 18.1 C 7.1 C 0.0 C 10% WNW 11 KT 9.1 C/KM 0% 17 Fri 05 PM 13500 FT 18.3 C 6.9 C 0.0 C 10% NW 14 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 18 Fri 06 PM 13500 FT 18.5 C 6.7 C 0.0 C 10% NW 15 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 19 Fri 07 PM 13600 FT 18.4 C 6.8 C 0.0 C 10% NNW 11 KT 9.0 C/KM 0% 20 Fri 08 PM 13800 FT 18.5 C 6.7 C 0.0 C 10% NNW 11 KT 9.1 C/KM 0% 21 Fri 09 PM 13800 FT 18.6 C 6.6 C 0.0 C 10% NNW 8 KT 9.1 C/KM 0% 22 Fri 10 PM 13900 FT 18.7 C 6.5 C 0.0 C 10% NNW 8 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 23 Fri 11 PM 13900 FT 18.3 C 6.9 C 0.0 C 10% WNW 6 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 24 Sat 12 AM 13900 FT 18.3 C 6.9 C 0.0 C 11% NNE 6 KT 9.6 C/KM 0% 25 Sat 01 AM 13800 FT 17.8 C 7.4 C 0.0 C 11% W 3 KT 9.6 C/KM 0% 26 Sat 02 AM 13800 FT 17.7 C 7.5 C 0.0 C 12% W 5 KT 9.6 C/KM 0% 27 Sat 03 AM 13800 FT 17.5 C 7.7 C 0.0 C 13% WNW 4 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 28 Sat 04 AM 13800 FT 17.3 C 7.9 C 0.0 C 13% WNW 2 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 29 Sat 05 AM 14000 FT 17.5 C 7.7 C 0.0 C 14% NNW 2 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 30 Sat 06 AM 14100 FT 17.6 C 7.6 C 0.0 C 14% NE 2 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 31 Sat 07 AM 14200 FT 17.4 C 7.8 C 0.0 C 15% ESE 3 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 32 Sat 08 AM 14200 FT 17.3 C 7.9 C 0.0 C 16% SE 5 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 33 Sat 09 AM 14200 FT 17.1 C 8.1 C 0.0 C 16% S 8 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 34 Sat 10 AM 14300 FT 17.2 C 8.0 C 0.0 C 16% SSW 10 KT 9.1 C/KM 0% 35 Sat 11 AM 14200 FT 17.2 C 8.0 C 0.0 C 15% SSW 11 KT 9.0 C/KM 0% 36 Sat 12 PM 14200 FT 17.2 C 8.0 C 0.0 C 15% SSW 9 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 37 Sat 01 PM 14400 FT 17.7 C 7.5 C 0.0 C 15% SSW 8 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 38 Sat 02 PM 14600 FT 18.1 C 7.1 C 0.0 C 15% SSW 8 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 39 Sat 03 PM 14700 FT 18.3 C 6.9 C 0.0 C 15% SW 10 KT 9.0 C/KM 0% 40 Sat 04 PM 14800 FT 18.6 C 6.6 C 0.0 C 14% SW 9 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 41 Sat 05 PM 14800 FT 18.6 C 6.6 C 0.0 C 14% WSW 9 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 42 Sat 06 PM 14900 FT 18.7 C 6.5 C 0.0 C 14% WSW 12 KT 9.0 C/KM 0% 43 Sat 07 PM 14900 FT 18.8 C 6.4 C 0.0 C 13% WSW 12 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 44 Sat 08 PM 14800 FT 17.5 C 7.7 C 0.0 C 22% S 4 KT 9.0 C/KM 0% 45 Sat 09 PM 14600 FT 17.3 C 7.9 C 0.0 C 23% SSW 8 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 46 Sat 10 PM 14500 FT 17.1 C 8.1 C 0.0 C 23% W 13 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 47 Sat 11 PM 14500 FT 15.7 C 9.5 C 0.0 C 26% WSW 14 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 48 Sun 12 AM 14700 FT 15.7 C 9.5 C 0.0 C 27% W 24 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 49 Sun 01 AM 14700 FT 15.0 C 10.2 C 0.0 C 30% W 18 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 50 Sun 02 AM 14800 FT 15.7 C 9.5 C 0.0 C 29% W 13 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 51 Sun 03 AM 14700 FT 15.9 C 9.3 C 0.0 C 29% WSW 10 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 52 Sun 04 AM 14500 FT 15.8 C 9.4 C 0.0 C 30% SSW 13 KT 8.7 C/KM 0% 53 Sun 05 AM 14500 FT 14.3 C 10.9 C 0.0 C 33% SSW 6 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 54 Sun 06 AM 14600 FT 14.6 C 10.6 C 0.0 C 32% SSW 11 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 55 Sun 07 AM 14600 FT 14.5 C 10.7 C 0.0 C 34% SW 12 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 56 Sun 08 AM 14500 FT 14.0 C 11.2 C 0.0 C 33% WSW 10 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 57 Sun 09 AM 14500 FT 14.0 C 11.2 C 0.0 C 33% W 8 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 58 Sun 10 AM 14500 FT 14.1 C 11.1 C 0.0 C 33% WSW 6 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 59 Sun 11 AM 14600 FT 14.1 C 11.1 C 0.0 C 32% SW 9 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 60 Sun 12 PM 14500 FT 14.2 C 11.0 C 0.0 C 31% SW 10 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 61 Sun 01 PM 14700 FT 14.7 C 10.5 C 0.0 C 30% SW 12 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 62 Sun 02 PM 14900 FT 15.0 C 10.2 C 0.0 C 27% WSW 12 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 63 Sun 03 PM 14900 FT 15.5 C 9.7 C 0.0 C 25% WSW 13 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 64 Sun 04 PM 14800 FT 15.9 C 9.3 C 0.0 C 25% W 13 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 65 Sun 05 PM 14800 FT 16.3 C 8.9 C 0.0 C 23% W 14 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 66 Sun 06 PM 14800 FT 16.8 C 8.4 C 0.0 C 22% W 17 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 67 Sun 07 PM 14900 FT 16.9 C 8.3 C 0.0 C 22% W 15 KT 8.8 C/KM 0% 68 Sun 08 PM 14900 FT 16.7 C 8.5 C 0.0 C 25% WSW 13 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% 69 Sun 09 PM 14600 FT 17.1 C 8.1 C 0.0 C 22% WSW 17 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 70 Sun 10 PM 14800 FT 16.6 C 8.6 C 0.0 C 26% W 20 KT 9.1 C/KM 0% 71 Sun 11 PM 14700 FT 15.6 C 9.6 C 0.0 C 29% W 16 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% 72 Mon 12 AM 14700 FT 14.9 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 31% W 13 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 73 Mon 01 AM 14700 FT 14.9 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 32% W 11 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 74 Mon 02 AM 14700 FT 14.5 C 10.7 C 0.0 C 32% WNW 8 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 75 Mon 03 AM 14700 FT 14.1 C 11.1 C 0.0 C 32% WNW 7 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 76 Mon 04 AM 14600 FT 14.0 C 11.2 C 0.0 C 34% NW 8 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 77 Mon 05 AM 14700 FT 13.8 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 34% NW 6 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 78 Mon 06 AM 14600 FT 13.5 C 11.7 C 0.0 C 34% WSW 3 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 79 Mon 07 AM 14500 FT 13.2 C 12.0 C 0.0 C 35% WSW 5 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 80 Mon 08 AM 14400 FT 12.6 C 12.6 C 0.0 C 37% WSW 6 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 81 Mon 09 AM 14400 FT 12.6 C 12.6 C 0.0 C 39% SW 5 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 82 Mon 10 AM 14300 FT 13.1 C 12.1 C 0.0 C 36% SW 9 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 83 Mon 11 AM 14300 FT 13.2 C 12.0 C 0.0 C 36% SW 10 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 84 Mon 12 PM 14300 FT 13.0 C 12.2 C 0.0 C 36% SW 10 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 85 Mon 01 PM 14300 FT 13.3 C 11.9 C 0.0 C 35% WSW 11 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 86 Mon 02 PM 14400 FT 13.5 C 11.7 C 0.0 C 34% WSW 13 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 87 Mon 03 PM 14500 FT 13.6 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 33% WSW 13 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 88 Mon 04 PM 14500 FT 13.4 C 11.8 C 0.0 C 31% W 16 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 89 Mon 05 PM 14300 FT 13.9 C 11.3 C 0.0 C 29% W 14 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 90 Mon 06 PM 14400 FT 14.4 C 10.8 C 0.0 C 28% W 17 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 91 Mon 07 PM 14400 FT 14.6 C 10.6 C 0.0 C 26% WNW 19 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 92 Mon 08 PM 14500 FT 14.3 C 10.9 C 0.0 C 26% NW 16 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 93 Mon 09 PM 14500 FT 13.9 C 11.3 C 0.0 C 28% NNW 16 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 94 Mon 10 PM 14500 FT 14.1 C 11.1 C 0.0 C 29% NNW 16 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 95 Mon 11 PM 14300 FT 13.6 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 31% N 12 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 96 Tue 12 AM 14000 FT 13.4 C 11.8 C 0.0 C 30% N 11 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 97 Tue 01 AM 13800 FT 13.4 C 11.8 C 0.0 C 27% NNE 7 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 98 Tue 02 AM 14000 FT 13.3 C 11.9 C 0.0 C 27% NNE 3 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 99 Tue 03 AM 13900 FT 13.2 C 12.0 C 0.0 C 27% NNW 2 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 100 Tue 04 AM 13600 FT 13.1 C 12.1 C 0.0 C 27% NW 3 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 101 Tue 05 AM 13400 FT 13.0 C 12.2 C 0.0 C 28% WNW 3 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 102 Tue 06 AM 13300 FT 12.7 C 12.5 C 0.0 C 28% WNW 5 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 103 Tue 07 AM 13200 FT 12.6 C 12.6 C 0.0 C 28% WNW 7 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 104 Tue 08 AM 13200 FT 12.4 C 12.8 C 0.0 C 28% WNW 10 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 105 Tue 09 AM 13000 FT 12.6 C 12.6 C 0.0 C 26% WNW 12 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 106 Tue 10 AM 12700 FT 12.7 C 12.5 C 0.0 C 24% NW 12 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 107 Tue 11 AM 12800 FT 12.7 C 12.5 C 0.0 C 23% NW 13 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 108 Tue 12 PM 12900 FT 12.9 C 12.3 C 0.0 C 22% WNW 13 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 109 Tue 01 PM 12900 FT 12.9 C 12.3 C 0.0 C 21% WNW 11 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 110 Tue 02 PM 13000 FT 13.1 C 12.1 C 0.0 C 20% WNW 10 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 111 Tue 03 PM 13000 FT 13.4 C 11.8 C 0.0 C 20% NW 10 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 112 Tue 04 PM 13000 FT 13.7 C 11.5 C 0.0 C 19% WNW 11 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 113 Tue 05 PM 13000 FT 14.1 C 11.1 C 0.0 C 19% WNW 13 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 114 Tue 06 PM 13000 FT 14.5 C 10.7 C 0.0 C 18% NNW 15 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 115 Tue 07 PM 13300 FT 14.9 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 18% NW 20 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 116 Tue 08 PM 13300 FT 15.1 C 10.1 C 0.0 C 19% NNW 18 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 117 Tue 09 PM 13300 FT 14.8 C 10.4 C 0.0 C 19% N 13 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 118 Tue 10 PM 13300 FT 15.0 C 10.2 C 0.0 C 19% NNE 15 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 119 Tue 11 PM 13300 FT 15.1 C 10.1 C 0.0 C 18% N 15 KT 8.8 C/KM 0% 120 Wed 12 AM 13100 FT 15.2 C 10.0 C 0.0 C 16% NNE 13 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% FORECAST HOURS 123-180 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 123 Wed 03 AM 12700 FT 15.1 C 10.1 C 0.0 C 16% ENE 5 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% 126 Wed 06 AM 13200 FT 14.9 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 17% ESE 3 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 129 Wed 09 AM 13200 FT 14.9 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 16% S 0 KT 8.8 C/KM 0% 132 Wed 12 PM 12900 FT 15.2 C 10.0 C 0.0 C 13% NE 3 KT 8.8 C/KM 0% 135 Wed 03 PM 14000 FT 16.5 C 8.7 C 0.0 C 13% WNW 7 KT 9.0 C/KM 0% 138 Wed 06 PM 14100 FT 17.8 C 7.4 C 0.0 C 14% WSW 5 KT 9.0 C/KM 0% 141 Wed 09 PM 14400 FT 18.4 C 6.8 C 0.0 C 14% WSW 8 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 144 Thu 12 AM 14500 FT 18.4 C 6.8 C 0.0 C 14% WSW 10 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 147 Thu 03 AM 14300 FT 18.5 C 6.7 C 0.0 C 14% SW 9 KT 9.6 C/KM 0% 150 Thu 06 AM 14200 FT 17.6 C 7.6 C 0.0 C 15% WSW 12 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 153 Thu 09 AM 13800 FT 17.1 C 8.1 C 0.0 C 16% W 8 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 156 Thu 12 PM 13800 FT 16.9 C 8.3 C 0.0 C 16% WSW 7 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 159 Thu 03 PM 14000 FT 17.3 C 7.9 C 0.0 C 14% WNW 10 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% 162 Thu 06 PM 13900 FT 18.0 C 7.2 C 0.0 C 13% W 15 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 165 Thu 09 PM 13800 FT 18.4 C 6.8 C 0.0 C 12% NNW 16 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 168 Fri 12 AM 14100 FT 18.7 C 6.5 C 0.0 C 12% NE 9 KT 9.1 C/KM 0% 171 Fri 03 AM 14100 FT 18.5 C 6.7 C 0.0 C 12% NE 8 KT 8.7 C/KM 0% 174 Fri 06 AM 14100 FT 18.3 C 6.9 C 0.0 C 12% ENE 3 KT 9.1 C/KM 0% 177 Fri 09 AM 14100 FT 18.3 C 6.9 C 0.0 C 12% SE 5 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 180 Fri 12 PM 14600 FT 18.4 C 6.8 C 0.0 C 11% S 9 KT 9.4 C/KM 0%