GFS-DERIVED GREAT SALT LAKE-EFFECT FORECAST GUIDANCE ************************************************************** * THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL, AUTOMATED AND UNOFFICIAL FORECAST * ************************************************************** CREATED/MAINTAINED BY TREVOR ALCOTT AND JIM STEENBURGH BASED PARTLY ON ALCOTT ET AL. (2012, WEATHER AND FORECASTING) Contact: jim.steenburgh@utah.edu 7-DAY MEDIAN GREAT SALT LAKE (SOUTH ARM) TEMPERATURE FROM AVHRR 24.7 C CLIMATOLOGICAL LAKE TEMPERATURE 24.8 C LAKE TEMPERATURE USED IN CALCULATIONS 24.8 C For more on GSL temperatures: http://home.chpc.utah.edu/~u0198116/AVHRR/gsltemp.html 07-01-2025 18Z GFS FORECAST HOURS 0-120 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 0 Tue 12 PM 13600 FT 15.3 C 9.5 C 0.0 C 16% SSW 11 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 1 Tue 01 PM 13700 FT 15.7 C 9.1 C 0.0 C 15% SW 9 KT 9.5 C/KM 0% 2 Tue 02 PM 13800 FT 15.8 C 9.0 C 0.0 C 17% SW 9 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 3 Tue 03 PM 13900 FT 15.6 C 9.2 C 0.0 C 16% WSW 12 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 4 Tue 04 PM 13900 FT 16.0 C 8.8 C 0.0 C 16% SW 11 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 5 Tue 05 PM 13900 FT 15.6 C 9.2 C 0.0 C 23% SE 4 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 6 Tue 06 PM 14100 FT 12.9 C 11.9 C 0.0 C 27% S 30 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 7 Tue 07 PM 13900 FT 12.7 C 12.1 C 0.0 C 29% SSW 15 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 8 Tue 08 PM 13800 FT 12.9 C 11.9 C 0.0 C 27% SSW 8 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 9 Tue 09 PM 13700 FT 13.9 C 10.9 C 0.0 C 25% SE 10 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% 10 Tue 10 PM 13800 FT 13.7 C 11.1 C 0.0 C 25% E 8 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 11 Tue 11 PM 13800 FT 14.0 C 10.8 C 0.0 C 27% NW 2 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% 12 Wed 12 AM 13700 FT 13.5 C 11.3 C 0.0 C 26% WSW 8 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 13 Wed 01 AM 13700 FT 13.5 C 11.3 C 0.0 C 28% WSW 8 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 14 Wed 02 AM 13700 FT 13.7 C 11.1 C 0.0 C 28% WSW 10 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% 15 Wed 03 AM 13600 FT 14.2 C 10.6 C 0.0 C 27% WSW 8 KT 8.7 C/KM 0% 16 Wed 04 AM 13500 FT 14.0 C 10.8 C 0.0 C 27% S 6 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 17 Wed 05 AM 13500 FT 13.6 C 11.2 C 0.0 C 30% SSE 9 KT 9.0 C/KM 0% 18 Wed 06 AM 13300 FT 13.1 C 11.7 C 0.0 C 27% SSW 13 KT 8.7 C/KM 0% 19 Wed 07 AM 12900 FT 13.4 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 28% SSW 4 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 20 Wed 08 AM 12900 FT 13.4 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 27% ESE 3 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 21 Wed 09 AM 12900 FT 13.0 C 11.8 C 0.0 C 30% SSE 5 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 22 Wed 10 AM 13100 FT 12.5 C 12.3 C 0.0 C 30% S 8 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 23 Wed 11 AM 13500 FT 12.7 C 12.1 C 0.0 C 28% SSW 8 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 24 Wed 12 PM 13600 FT 12.5 C 12.3 C 0.0 C 27% SSW 7 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 25 Wed 01 PM 13900 FT 13.0 C 11.8 C 0.0 C 27% SW 7 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 26 Wed 02 PM 13900 FT 13.4 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 27% WSW 7 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 27 Wed 03 PM 14000 FT 13.5 C 11.3 C 0.0 C 26% W 9 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 28 Wed 04 PM 14100 FT 13.4 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 25% WNW 6 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 29 Wed 05 PM 13800 FT 10.5 C 14.3 C 0.0 C 59% NNW 6 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 30 Wed 06 PM 13700 FT 10.6 C 14.2 C 0.0 C 46% WNW 3 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 31 Wed 07 PM 13800 FT 11.6 C 13.2 C 0.0 C 46% NNW 8 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 32 Wed 08 PM 13800 FT 11.8 C 13.0 C 0.0 C 44% ENE 7 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 33 Wed 09 PM 13700 FT 11.3 C 13.5 C 0.0 C 46% ENE 7 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 34 Wed 10 PM 13800 FT 12.1 C 12.7 C 0.0 C 42% NE 5 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 35 Wed 11 PM 13800 FT 12.3 C 12.5 C 0.0 C 42% NE 5 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 36 Thu 12 AM 13600 FT 11.7 C 13.1 C 0.0 C 42% WSW 3 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 37 Thu 01 AM 13600 FT 10.6 C 14.2 C 0.0 C 47% ESE 2 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 38 Thu 02 AM 13600 FT 10.2 C 14.6 C 0.0 C 51% SSE 3 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 39 Thu 03 AM 13600 FT 10.8 C 14.0 C 0.0 C 50% SE 3 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 40 Thu 04 AM 13700 FT 10.6 C 14.2 C 0.0 C 51% SE 3 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 41 Thu 05 AM 13600 FT 10.3 C 14.5 C 0.0 C 51% SSE 5 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 42 Thu 06 AM 13600 FT 10.4 C 14.4 C 0.0 C 50% SSW 6 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 43 Thu 07 AM 13600 FT 10.1 C 14.7 C 0.0 C 52% SW 5 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 44 Thu 08 AM 13600 FT 9.4 C 15.4 C 0.0 C 54% SSW 5 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 45 Thu 09 AM 13500 FT 9.3 C 15.5 C 0.0 C 54% SSW 7 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 46 Thu 10 AM 13500 FT 9.1 C 15.7 C 0.0 C 53% WSW 8 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 47 Thu 11 AM 13500 FT 9.1 C 15.7 C 0.0 C 53% W 8 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 48 Thu 12 PM 13700 FT 9.4 C 15.4 C 0.0 C 51% WSW 8 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 49 Thu 01 PM 13800 FT 9.7 C 15.1 C 0.0 C 48% SW 6 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 50 Thu 02 PM 13400 FT 10.2 C 14.6 C 0.0 C 45% SW 6 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 51 Thu 03 PM 13300 FT 10.6 C 14.2 C 0.0 C 41% SW 10 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 52 Thu 04 PM 13600 FT 11.6 C 13.2 C 0.0 C 36% WSW 10 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 53 Thu 05 PM 13500 FT 12.2 C 12.6 C 0.0 C 33% SW 9 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 54 Thu 06 PM 13300 FT 12.7 C 12.1 C 0.0 C 28% SW 8 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 55 Thu 07 PM 13300 FT 12.9 C 11.9 C 0.0 C 27% SSW 9 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 56 Thu 08 PM 13400 FT 12.5 C 12.3 C 0.0 C 35% SW 4 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 57 Thu 09 PM 13400 FT 12.2 C 12.6 C 0.0 C 34% SSE 7 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 58 Thu 10 PM 13300 FT 12.9 C 11.9 C 0.0 C 31% WSW 2 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 59 Thu 11 PM 13500 FT 12.7 C 12.1 C 0.0 C 30% SW 6 KT 8.8 C/KM 0% 60 Fri 12 AM 13500 FT 12.1 C 12.7 C 0.0 C 32% WSW 11 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 61 Fri 01 AM 13200 FT 12.3 C 12.5 C 0.0 C 31% WSW 11 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 62 Fri 02 AM 13100 FT 12.4 C 12.4 C 0.0 C 32% SW 8 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% 63 Fri 03 AM 13100 FT 11.9 C 12.9 C 0.0 C 34% SW 12 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 64 Fri 04 AM 13100 FT 12.0 C 12.8 C 0.0 C 34% SW 10 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 65 Fri 05 AM 13000 FT 11.7 C 13.1 C 0.0 C 34% SSW 8 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 66 Fri 06 AM 12900 FT 11.6 C 13.2 C 0.0 C 34% SW 7 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 67 Fri 07 AM 12900 FT 11.6 C 13.2 C 0.0 C 34% SW 6 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 68 Fri 08 AM 13000 FT 11.6 C 13.2 C 0.0 C 33% SW 10 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 69 Fri 09 AM 12900 FT 11.6 C 13.2 C 0.0 C 31% SW 14 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 70 Fri 10 AM 12900 FT 11.6 C 13.2 C 0.0 C 30% SW 16 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 71 Fri 11 AM 12800 FT 11.3 C 13.5 C 0.0 C 30% SSW 16 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 72 Fri 12 PM 13000 FT 12.0 C 12.8 C 0.0 C 22% SSW 21 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% 73 Fri 01 PM 13100 FT 12.5 C 12.3 C 0.0 C 22% SSW 24 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 74 Fri 02 PM 13100 FT 13.1 C 11.7 C 0.0 C 20% SSW 28 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 75 Fri 03 PM 12900 FT 13.4 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 18% SSW 31 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 76 Fri 04 PM 12700 FT 14.1 C 10.7 C 0.0 C 15% SSW 36 KT 9.5 C/KM 0% 77 Fri 05 PM 13000 FT 11.4 C 13.4 C 0.0 C 36% SW 14 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 78 Fri 06 PM 13000 FT 10.5 C 14.3 C 0.0 C 45% WSW 12 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 79 Fri 07 PM 12800 FT 9.8 C 15.0 C 0.0 C 44% W 12 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 80 Fri 08 PM 12700 FT 8.5 C 16.3 C 0.0 C 50% W 14 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 81 Fri 09 PM 12600 FT 9.3 C 15.5 C 0.0 C 40% W 16 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 82 Fri 10 PM 12500 FT 10.0 C 14.8 C 0.0 C 36% WNW 23 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 83 Fri 11 PM 12600 FT 10.3 C 14.5 C 0.0 C 33% WNW 21 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 84 Sat 12 AM 12600 FT 10.5 C 14.3 C 0.0 C 30% WNW 21 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 85 Sat 01 AM 12700 FT 10.5 C 14.3 C 0.0 C 28% WNW 18 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 86 Sat 02 AM 12400 FT 10.4 C 14.4 C 0.0 C 29% WNW 17 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 87 Sat 03 AM 12000 FT 10.2 C 14.6 C 0.0 C 29% WNW 14 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 88 Sat 04 AM 11600 FT 10.0 C 14.8 C 0.0 C 28% WNW 11 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 89 Sat 05 AM 11600 FT 10.2 C 14.6 C 0.0 C 26% W 9 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 90 Sat 06 AM 11600 FT 10.1 C 14.7 C 0.0 C 27% WSW 8 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 91 Sat 07 AM 11600 FT 10.1 C 14.7 C 0.0 C 28% SW 8 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 92 Sat 08 AM 11700 FT 10.1 C 14.7 C 0.0 C 32% SSW 9 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 93 Sat 09 AM 11900 FT 10.1 C 14.7 C 0.0 C 34% SSW 10 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 94 Sat 10 AM 12000 FT 10.2 C 14.6 C 0.0 C 31% SSW 11 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 95 Sat 11 AM 11900 FT 10.5 C 14.3 C 0.0 C 30% SSW 12 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 96 Sat 12 PM 11900 FT 10.4 C 14.4 C 0.0 C 29% SSW 12 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 97 Sat 01 PM 12300 FT 11.3 C 13.5 C 0.0 C 27% SSW 12 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 98 Sat 02 PM 12500 FT 12.0 C 12.8 C 0.0 C 26% SSW 12 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 99 Sat 03 PM 12500 FT 12.3 C 12.5 C 0.0 C 23% SW 11 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 100 Sat 04 PM 12500 FT 12.5 C 12.3 C 0.0 C 19% SW 12 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 101 Sat 05 PM 12600 FT 12.8 C 12.0 C 0.0 C 18% WSW 12 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 102 Sat 06 PM 12600 FT 13.3 C 11.5 C 0.0 C 18% SW 12 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 103 Sat 07 PM 12700 FT 13.8 C 11.0 C 0.0 C 17% SW 12 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 104 Sat 08 PM 12800 FT 14.4 C 10.4 C 0.0 C 15% SW 13 KT 9.0 C/KM 0% 105 Sat 09 PM 12700 FT 14.6 C 10.2 C 0.0 C 14% SSW 13 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 106 Sat 10 PM 12700 FT 14.7 C 10.1 C 0.0 C 15% SSW 13 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 107 Sat 11 PM 12800 FT 14.7 C 10.1 C 0.0 C 15% S 15 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 108 Sun 12 AM 12900 FT 14.9 C 9.9 C 0.0 C 15% S 19 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 109 Sun 01 AM 12800 FT 14.6 C 10.2 C 0.0 C 16% SSW 18 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 110 Sun 02 AM 12800 FT 14.3 C 10.5 C 0.0 C 15% SW 14 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 111 Sun 03 AM 12600 FT 14.2 C 10.6 C 0.0 C 14% SW 17 KT 9.1 C/KM 0% 112 Sun 04 AM 12400 FT 13.9 C 10.9 C 0.0 C 13% SW 17 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 113 Sun 05 AM 12300 FT 13.9 C 10.9 C 0.0 C 13% SW 15 KT 8.8 C/KM 0% 114 Sun 06 AM 12200 FT 13.6 C 11.2 C 0.0 C 13% SW 16 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 115 Sun 07 AM 11900 FT 13.5 C 11.3 C 0.0 C 12% SSW 17 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 116 Sun 08 AM 11500 FT 13.3 C 11.5 C 0.0 C 12% SSW 17 KT 8.6 C/KM 0% 117 Sun 09 AM 11600 FT 12.9 C 11.9 C 0.0 C 13% SSW 16 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 118 Sun 10 AM 11800 FT 12.9 C 11.9 C 0.0 C 14% SSW 17 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 119 Sun 11 AM 11900 FT 12.6 C 12.2 C 0.0 C 14% SSW 16 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 120 Sun 12 PM 12200 FT 13.1 C 11.7 C 0.0 C 13% SSW 16 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% FORECAST HOURS 123-180 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 123 Sun 03 PM 12100 FT 15.0 C 9.8 C 0.0 C 8% SSW 19 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 126 Sun 06 PM 12400 FT 16.1 C 8.7 C 0.0 C 8% SW 19 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 129 Sun 09 PM 12300 FT 16.6 C 8.2 C 0.0 C 8% SW 15 KT 9.6 C/KM 0% 132 Mon 12 AM 12400 FT 16.5 C 8.3 C 0.0 C 7% SW 19 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 135 Mon 03 AM 12100 FT 15.9 C 8.9 C 0.0 C 8% WSW 17 KT 9.5 C/KM 0% 138 Mon 06 AM 11800 FT 14.9 C 9.9 C 0.0 C 8% WSW 19 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 141 Mon 09 AM 11600 FT 14.4 C 10.4 C 0.0 C 11% SW 14 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 144 Mon 12 PM 11800 FT 14.3 C 10.5 C 0.0 C 10% SW 14 KT 8.8 C/KM 0% 147 Mon 03 PM 12400 FT 15.1 C 9.7 C 0.0 C 11% SW 14 KT 9.1 C/KM 0% 150 Mon 06 PM 12200 FT 15.9 C 8.9 C 0.0 C 9% W 16 KT 9.3 C/KM 0% 153 Mon 09 PM 12200 FT 16.7 C 8.1 C 0.0 C 8% WSW 9 KT 9.5 C/KM 0% 156 Tue 12 AM 12200 FT 15.7 C 9.1 C 0.0 C 9% N 3 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 159 Tue 03 AM 12100 FT 15.6 C 9.2 C 0.0 C 9% ESE 5 KT 9.4 C/KM 0% 162 Tue 06 AM 12100 FT 14.9 C 9.9 C 0.0 C 11% ESE 4 KT 9.2 C/KM 0% 165 Tue 09 AM 12000 FT 14.1 C 10.7 C 0.0 C 11% SSW 2 KT 9.0 C/KM 0% 168 Tue 12 PM 12200 FT 14.0 C 10.8 C 0.0 C 13% WSW 4 KT 9.1 C/KM 0% 171 Tue 03 PM 12300 FT 14.2 C 10.6 C 0.0 C 15% WNW 11 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 174 Tue 06 PM 13100 FT 14.4 C 10.4 C 0.0 C 15% NW 17 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 177 Tue 09 PM 13400 FT 15.0 C 9.8 C 0.0 C 16% NNW 13 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 180 Wed 12 AM 13600 FT 14.7 C 10.1 C 0.0 C 17% NNE 10 KT 7.8 C/KM 0%