GFS-DERIVED GREAT SALT LAKE-EFFECT FORECAST GUIDANCE ************************************************************** * THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL, AUTOMATED AND UNOFFICIAL FORECAST * ************************************************************** CREATED/MAINTAINED BY TREVOR ALCOTT AND JIM STEENBURGH BASED PARTLY ON ALCOTT ET AL. (2012, WEATHER AND FORECASTING) Contact: jim.steenburgh@utah.edu 7-DAY MEDIAN GREAT SALT LAKE (SOUTH ARM) TEMPERATURE FROM AVHRR 9.4 C CLIMATOLOGICAL LAKE TEMPERATURE 10.8 C LAKE TEMPERATURE USED IN CALCULATIONS 10.1 C For more on GSL temperatures: http://home.chpc.utah.edu/~u0198116/AVHRR/gsltemp.html 03-29-2024 00Z GFS FORECAST HOURS 0-120 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 0 Thu 06 PM 5200 FT -7.7 C 17.8 C 0.0 C 76% NW 19 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 1 Thu 07 PM 5000 FT -7.9 C 18.0 C 0.1 C 68% NW 15 KT 6.0 C/KM 1% BOUNTIFUL 2 Thu 08 PM 4900 FT -7.6 C 17.7 C 0.0 C 59% WNW 13 KT 6.1 C/KM 0% 3 Thu 09 PM 4700 FT -7.2 C 17.3 C 0.0 C 53% WNW 13 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 4 Thu 10 PM 4700 FT -7.0 C 17.1 C 0.0 C 51% WNW 12 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 5 Thu 11 PM 4900 FT -7.3 C 17.4 C 0.0 C 52% WNW 11 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 6 Fri 12 AM 4900 FT -7.4 C 17.5 C 0.0 C 54% WNW 9 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 7 Fri 01 AM 4800 FT -7.3 C 17.4 C 0.0 C 53% WNW 10 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 8 Fri 02 AM 4600 FT -7.8 C 17.9 C 0.0 C 53% NW 7 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 9 Fri 03 AM 4600 FT -8.0 C 18.1 C 0.2 C 53% NW 5 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 10 Fri 04 AM 4500 FT -8.0 C 18.1 C 0.2 C 54% NNW 6 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 11 Fri 05 AM 4500 FT -8.2 C 18.3 C 0.4 C 54% SW 4 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 12 Fri 06 AM 4300 FT -8.2 C 18.3 C 0.4 C 52% SW 6 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 13 Fri 07 AM 4400 FT -8.2 C 18.3 C 0.4 C 51% NNE 6 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 14 Fri 08 AM 4500 FT -8.0 C 18.1 C 0.2 C 51% NNE 5 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 15 Fri 09 AM 4700 FT -8.0 C 18.1 C 0.2 C 52% NNE 3 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 16 Fri 10 AM 5000 FT -7.9 C 18.0 C 0.1 C 54% ENE 2 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 17 Fri 11 AM 5200 FT -7.6 C 17.7 C 0.0 C 53% SE 3 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 18 Fri 12 PM 5400 FT -7.5 C 17.6 C 0.0 C 52% SSE 5 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 19 Fri 01 PM 5400 FT -7.1 C 17.2 C 0.0 C 49% SSE 7 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 20 Fri 02 PM 5500 FT -7.3 C 17.4 C 0.0 C 46% SSE 7 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 21 Fri 03 PM 5600 FT -6.9 C 17.0 C 0.0 C 44% SSE 8 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 22 Fri 04 PM 5800 FT -6.3 C 16.4 C 0.0 C 43% SSE 10 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 23 Fri 05 PM 5900 FT -5.7 C 15.8 C 0.0 C 42% SSE 12 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 24 Fri 06 PM 6000 FT -5.1 C 15.2 C 0.0 C 44% SSE 16 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 25 Fri 07 PM 6200 FT -5.2 C 15.3 C 0.0 C 48% SSE 18 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 26 Fri 08 PM 6300 FT -5.3 C 15.4 C 0.0 C 50% SSE 17 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 27 Fri 09 PM 6400 FT -5.8 C 15.9 C 0.0 C 60% SSE 17 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 28 Fri 10 PM 6400 FT -4.8 C 14.9 C 0.0 C 80% S 25 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 29 Fri 11 PM 6500 FT -5.0 C 15.1 C 0.0 C 86% SSW 29 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 30 Sat 12 AM 6700 FT -4.8 C 14.9 C 0.0 C 77% SSW 29 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 31 Sat 01 AM 6600 FT -5.1 C 15.2 C 0.0 C 80% SSW 29 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 32 Sat 02 AM 6700 FT -5.1 C 15.2 C 0.0 C 91% SSW 28 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 33 Sat 03 AM 6600 FT -4.8 C 14.9 C 0.0 C 95% SSW 29 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 34 Sat 04 AM 6600 FT -5.1 C 15.2 C 0.0 C 95% SW 34 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 35 Sat 05 AM 6700 FT -5.7 C 15.8 C 0.0 C 94% SSW 31 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 36 Sat 06 AM 6300 FT -5.8 C 15.9 C 0.0 C 85% SSW 37 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 37 Sat 07 AM 6500 FT -5.5 C 15.6 C 0.0 C 90% SSW 29 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 38 Sat 08 AM 6100 FT -5.4 C 15.5 C 0.0 C 79% SW 31 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 39 Sat 09 AM 6000 FT -5.9 C 16.0 C 0.0 C 83% SSW 32 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 40 Sat 10 AM 6100 FT -6.0 C 16.1 C 0.0 C 82% SSW 32 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 41 Sat 11 AM 6100 FT -6.0 C 16.1 C 0.0 C 86% SSW 34 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 42 Sat 12 PM 6200 FT -6.1 C 16.2 C 0.0 C 85% SSW 31 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 43 Sat 01 PM 6300 FT -6.2 C 16.3 C 0.0 C 87% SSW 26 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 44 Sat 02 PM 6400 FT -5.8 C 15.9 C 0.0 C 85% SSW 22 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 45 Sat 03 PM 6600 FT -5.4 C 15.5 C 0.0 C 78% SSW 17 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 46 Sat 04 PM 6800 FT -5.1 C 15.2 C 0.0 C 74% S 15 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 47 Sat 05 PM 6900 FT -4.4 C 14.5 C 0.0 C 67% SSW 16 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 48 Sat 06 PM 6900 FT -3.6 C 13.7 C 0.0 C 66% SSW 18 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 49 Sat 07 PM 7000 FT -3.8 C 13.9 C 0.0 C 67% S 19 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 50 Sat 08 PM 7100 FT -4.3 C 14.4 C 0.0 C 70% SSW 20 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 51 Sat 09 PM 7100 FT -4.4 C 14.5 C 0.0 C 75% SSW 14 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 52 Sat 10 PM 7000 FT -2.9 C 13.0 C 0.0 C 82% S 24 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 53 Sat 11 PM 6900 FT -3.2 C 13.3 C 0.0 C 80% SSW 19 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 54 Sun 12 AM 6900 FT -3.6 C 13.7 C 0.0 C 78% S 15 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 55 Sun 01 AM 6900 FT -3.9 C 14.0 C 0.0 C 81% S 20 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 56 Sun 02 AM 6900 FT -4.0 C 14.1 C 0.0 C 86% S 20 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 57 Sun 03 AM 6600 FT -4.3 C 14.4 C 0.0 C 87% SSW 21 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 58 Sun 04 AM 6400 FT -3.1 C 13.2 C 0.0 C 72% SSW 18 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 59 Sun 05 AM 6500 FT -3.6 C 13.7 C 0.0 C 71% S 20 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 60 Sun 06 AM 6500 FT -4.4 C 14.5 C 0.0 C 73% S 30 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 61 Sun 07 AM 6300 FT -5.9 C 16.0 C 0.0 C 79% S 26 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 62 Sun 08 AM 5900 FT -6.6 C 16.7 C 0.0 C 76% SSW 29 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 63 Sun 09 AM 5000 FT -7.7 C 17.8 C 0.0 C 81% SW 17 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 64 Sun 10 AM 4800 FT -7.8 C 17.9 C 0.0 C 76% SSW 18 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 65 Sun 11 AM 5100 FT -7.8 C 17.9 C 0.0 C 76% SSW 21 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 66 Sun 12 PM 5300 FT -7.6 C 17.7 C 0.0 C 76% SSW 29 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 67 Sun 01 PM 5500 FT -7.2 C 17.3 C 0.0 C 76% SSW 23 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 68 Sun 02 PM 5700 FT -7.6 C 17.7 C 0.0 C 67% SSW 21 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 69 Sun 03 PM 5800 FT -7.1 C 17.2 C 0.0 C 70% SSW 25 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 70 Sun 04 PM 5800 FT -7.3 C 17.4 C 0.0 C 72% SW 23 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 71 Sun 05 PM 5900 FT -7.1 C 17.2 C 0.0 C 69% SW 15 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 72 Sun 06 PM 5900 FT -6.7 C 16.8 C 0.0 C 72% SSW 14 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 73 Sun 07 PM 5800 FT -6.3 C 16.4 C 0.0 C 81% SSW 13 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 74 Sun 08 PM 5800 FT -6.5 C 16.6 C 0.0 C 80% SSW 18 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 75 Sun 09 PM 5400 FT -6.5 C 16.6 C 0.0 C 94% SSW 16 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 76 Sun 10 PM 4900 FT -6.8 C 16.9 C 0.0 C 97% SSW 13 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 77 Sun 11 PM 5200 FT -7.3 C 17.4 C 0.0 C 91% SW 9 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 78 Mon 12 AM 5400 FT -7.5 C 17.6 C 0.0 C 89% SW 8 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 79 Mon 01 AM 5300 FT -7.3 C 17.4 C 0.0 C 94% WSW 6 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 80 Mon 02 AM 5100 FT -7.3 C 17.4 C 0.0 C 97% WSW 8 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 81 Mon 03 AM 5200 FT -7.6 C 17.7 C 0.0 C 98% W 11 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 82 Mon 04 AM 5300 FT -7.8 C 17.9 C 0.0 C 98% W 9 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 83 Mon 05 AM 5300 FT -7.8 C 17.9 C 0.0 C 97% WNW 9 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 84 Mon 06 AM 5300 FT -7.8 C 17.9 C 0.0 C 98% WNW 12 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 85 Mon 07 AM 5400 FT -7.6 C 17.7 C 0.0 C 99% NW 13 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 86 Mon 08 AM 5400 FT -7.9 C 18.0 C 0.0 C 99% NW 12 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 87 Mon 09 AM 4900 FT -8.1 C 18.2 C 0.1 C 95% NNW 13 KT 6.8 C/KM 16% WEST-SLV OQUIRRHS 88 Mon 10 AM 5200 FT -8.6 C 18.7 C 0.6 C 96% NNW 14 KT 6.7 C/KM 16% OQUIRRHS 89 Mon 11 AM 5300 FT -8.5 C 18.6 C 0.5 C 92% NNW 14 KT 6.8 C/KM 14% OQUIRRHS TOOELE 90 Mon 12 PM 5300 FT -8.1 C 18.2 C 0.1 C 87% N 9 KT 6.9 C/KM 6% TOOELE 91 Mon 01 PM 5400 FT -8.3 C 18.4 C 0.3 C 85% NNW 8 KT 6.5 C/KM 9% OQUIRRHS 92 Mon 02 PM 5600 FT -7.4 C 17.5 C 0.0 C 81% ESE 6 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 93 Mon 03 PM 5800 FT -6.8 C 16.9 C 0.0 C 79% ESE 7 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 94 Mon 04 PM 6000 FT -6.9 C 17.0 C 0.0 C 79% E 8 KT 5.8 C/KM 0% 95 Mon 05 PM 6100 FT -6.4 C 16.5 C 0.0 C 77% N 11 KT 5.8 C/KM 0% 96 Mon 06 PM 6200 FT -6.7 C 16.8 C 0.0 C 77% N 19 KT 5.6 C/KM 0% 97 Mon 07 PM 6200 FT -6.9 C 17.0 C 0.0 C 76% N 22 KT 5.5 C/KM 0% 98 Mon 08 PM 6200 FT -6.7 C 16.8 C 0.0 C 76% N 18 KT 5.7 C/KM 0% 99 Mon 09 PM 6200 FT -6.7 C 16.8 C 0.0 C 76% NNE 16 KT 5.6 C/KM 0% 100 Mon 10 PM 6300 FT -6.4 C 16.5 C 0.0 C 76% NNE 14 KT 5.5 C/KM 0% 101 Mon 11 PM 6300 FT -6.3 C 16.4 C 0.0 C 76% NNE 11 KT 5.1 C/KM 0% 102 Tue 12 AM 6300 FT -6.5 C 16.6 C 0.0 C 76% NNE 10 KT 5.2 C/KM 0% 103 Tue 01 AM 6200 FT -6.7 C 16.8 C 0.0 C 76% NNE 8 KT 5.2 C/KM 0% 104 Tue 02 AM 6200 FT -6.9 C 17.0 C 0.0 C 74% NNE 6 KT 5.2 C/KM 0% 105 Tue 03 AM 6100 FT -7.0 C 17.1 C 0.0 C 75% NE 6 KT 5.2 C/KM 0% 106 Tue 04 AM 6100 FT -6.6 C 16.7 C 0.0 C 72% NE 7 KT 5.2 C/KM 0% 107 Tue 05 AM 6000 FT -6.5 C 16.6 C 0.0 C 71% NNE 7 KT 5.0 C/KM 0% 108 Tue 06 AM 5900 FT -6.0 C 16.1 C 0.0 C 70% NNE 9 KT 5.0 C/KM 0% 109 Tue 07 AM 5900 FT -5.3 C 15.4 C 0.0 C 69% NNE 9 KT 5.0 C/KM 0% 110 Tue 08 AM 5800 FT -5.0 C 15.1 C 0.0 C 69% NNE 9 KT 4.9 C/KM 0% 111 Tue 09 AM 5800 FT -4.5 C 14.6 C 0.0 C 67% NNE 8 KT 5.0 C/KM 0% 112 Tue 10 AM 5800 FT -4.0 C 14.1 C 0.0 C 65% NNE 8 KT 5.2 C/KM 0% 113 Tue 11 AM 6100 FT -3.6 C 13.7 C 0.0 C 63% NNE 8 KT 5.4 C/KM 0% 114 Tue 12 PM 6300 FT -3.2 C 13.3 C 0.0 C 63% NNE 7 KT 5.5 C/KM 0% 115 Tue 01 PM 6400 FT -2.8 C 12.9 C 0.0 C 61% NNE 6 KT 5.6 C/KM 0% 116 Tue 02 PM 6500 FT -2.3 C 12.4 C 0.0 C 58% NNE 4 KT 5.7 C/KM 0% 117 Tue 03 PM 6500 FT -2.1 C 12.2 C 0.0 C 55% WNW 4 KT 5.7 C/KM 0% 118 Tue 04 PM 6600 FT -1.9 C 12.0 C 0.0 C 51% NNW 5 KT 5.8 C/KM 0% 119 Tue 05 PM 6500 FT -1.6 C 11.7 C 0.0 C 49% NNW 6 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 120 Tue 06 PM 6500 FT -1.3 C 11.4 C 0.0 C 48% N 8 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% FORECAST HOURS 123-180 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 123 Tue 09 PM 6800 FT -0.9 C 11.0 C 0.0 C 47% NNW 9 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 126 Wed 12 AM 7400 FT -1.0 C 11.1 C 0.0 C 48% NW 10 KT 5.7 C/KM 0% 129 Wed 03 AM 7100 FT -1.7 C 11.8 C 0.0 C 54% WNW 11 KT 5.4 C/KM 0% 132 Wed 06 AM 7200 FT -1.8 C 11.9 C 0.0 C 54% WNW 12 KT 5.4 C/KM 0% 135 Wed 09 AM 7200 FT -1.5 C 11.6 C 0.0 C 52% W 11 KT 5.7 C/KM 0% 138 Wed 12 PM 7500 FT -1.2 C 11.3 C 0.0 C 52% WSW 8 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 141 Wed 03 PM 8300 FT -1.4 C 11.5 C 0.0 C 52% SSW 10 KT 5.7 C/KM 0% 144 Wed 06 PM 8600 FT 0.0 C 10.1 C 0.0 C 45% SSW 17 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 147 Wed 09 PM 8000 FT 1.6 C 8.5 C 0.0 C 32% SW 31 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 150 Thu 12 AM 8400 FT 1.5 C 8.6 C 0.0 C 33% SSW 29 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 153 Thu 03 AM 7400 FT 1.6 C 8.5 C 0.0 C 29% SSW 33 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 156 Thu 06 AM 7400 FT 0.4 C 9.7 C 0.0 C 34% SSW 38 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 159 Thu 09 AM 7200 FT -0.2 C 10.3 C 0.0 C 33% S 32 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 162 Thu 12 PM 7600 FT 0.2 C 9.9 C 0.0 C 34% SSE 29 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 165 Thu 03 PM 7900 FT 2.1 C 8.0 C 0.0 C 21% S 35 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 168 Thu 06 PM 8100 FT 2.9 C 7.2 C 0.0 C 22% S 33 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 171 Thu 09 PM 8200 FT 2.8 C 7.3 C 0.0 C 24% S 44 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 174 Fri 12 AM 7600 FT 0.6 C 9.5 C 0.0 C 27% S 47 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 177 Fri 03 AM 7300 FT -0.8 C 10.9 C 0.0 C 43% SSE 20 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 180 Fri 06 AM 6100 FT -5.0 C 15.1 C 0.0 C 63% SSE 16 KT 7.4 C/KM 0%