GFS-DERIVED GREAT SALT LAKE-EFFECT FORECAST GUIDANCE ************************************************************** * THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL, AUTOMATED AND UNOFFICIAL FORECAST * ************************************************************** CREATED/MAINTAINED BY TREVOR ALCOTT AND JIM STEENBURGH BASED PARTLY ON ALCOTT ET AL. (2012, WEATHER AND FORECASTING) Contact: jim.steenburgh@utah.edu 7-DAY MEDIAN GREAT SALT LAKE (SOUTH ARM) TEMPERATURE FROM AVHRR 17.6 C CLIMATOLOGICAL LAKE TEMPERATURE 18.9 C LAKE TEMPERATURE USED IN CALCULATIONS 18.2 C For more on GSL temperatures: http://home.chpc.utah.edu/~u0198116/AVHRR/gsltemp.html 05-21-2024 00Z GFS FORECAST HOURS 0-120 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 0 Mon 06 PM 7600 FT -3.5 C 21.7 C 0.0 C 54% NW 16 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 1 Mon 07 PM 7400 FT -4.2 C 22.4 C 0.7 C 74% NW 11 KT 6.7 C/KM 4% WEST-SLV 2 Mon 08 PM 7200 FT -5.0 C 23.2 C 1.5 C 76% WNW 11 KT 6.7 C/KM 4% BOUNTIFUL 3 Mon 09 PM 6700 FT -4.5 C 22.7 C 1.0 C 56% WNW 16 KT 6.7 C/KM 2% BOUNTIFUL 4 Mon 10 PM 6500 FT -5.0 C 23.2 C 1.5 C 51% NNW 17 KT 6.1 C/KM 0% 5 Mon 11 PM 6500 FT -5.4 C 23.6 C 1.9 C 50% NNW 17 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 6 Tue 12 AM 6200 FT -5.5 C 23.7 C 1.9 C 54% NW 13 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 7 Tue 01 AM 6200 FT -6.2 C 24.4 C 2.6 C 63% NW 11 KT 6.4 C/KM 4% BOUNTIFUL 8 Tue 02 AM 6100 FT -6.4 C 24.6 C 2.8 C 60% WNW 13 KT 6.4 C/KM 4% BOUNTIFUL 9 Tue 03 AM 6200 FT -6.2 C 24.4 C 2.6 C 58% NNW 17 KT 6.5 C/KM 6% WEST-SLV 10 Tue 04 AM 6200 FT -6.4 C 24.6 C 2.8 C 64% NW 17 KT 6.8 C/KM 6% SLC/COTTONWOODS 11 Tue 05 AM 6300 FT -6.7 C 24.9 C 3.1 C 68% NW 16 KT 6.9 C/KM 6% SLC/COTTONWOODS 12 Tue 06 AM 6400 FT -6.8 C 25.0 C 3.2 C 70% NW 14 KT 7.1 C/KM 17% SLC/COTTONWOODS 13 Tue 07 AM 6400 FT -6.6 C 24.8 C 3.0 C 71% NW 12 KT 7.6 C/KM 17% SLC/COTTONWOODS 14 Tue 08 AM 6400 FT -6.5 C 24.7 C 2.9 C 70% NW 10 KT 7.7 C/KM 5% SLC/COTTONWOODS 15 Tue 09 AM 6300 FT -6.4 C 24.6 C 2.8 C 67% WNW 10 KT 7.8 C/KM 4% BOUNTIFUL 16 Tue 10 AM 6400 FT -6.1 C 24.3 C 2.5 C 64% WNW 10 KT 8.0 C/KM 4% BOUNTIFUL 17 Tue 11 AM 6400 FT -6.0 C 24.2 C 2.4 C 59% WNW 10 KT 7.9 C/KM 3% BOUNTIFUL OGDEN 18 Tue 12 PM 6500 FT -5.7 C 23.9 C 2.1 C 54% WNW 12 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 19 Tue 01 PM 6500 FT -5.4 C 23.6 C 1.8 C 48% WNW 12 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 20 Tue 02 PM 6500 FT -5.0 C 23.2 C 1.4 C 41% WNW 12 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 21 Tue 03 PM 6400 FT -4.5 C 22.7 C 0.9 C 37% WNW 14 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 22 Tue 04 PM 6500 FT -3.5 C 21.7 C 0.0 C 34% WNW 16 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 23 Tue 05 PM 6700 FT -2.9 C 21.1 C 0.0 C 33% NW 17 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 24 Tue 06 PM 6800 FT -2.5 C 20.7 C 0.0 C 33% WNW 16 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 25 Tue 07 PM 6900 FT -2.0 C 20.2 C 0.0 C 32% WNW 15 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 26 Tue 08 PM 6900 FT -1.6 C 19.8 C 0.0 C 30% WNW 13 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 27 Tue 09 PM 7000 FT -1.3 C 19.5 C 0.0 C 28% WNW 10 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 28 Tue 10 PM 6900 FT -1.0 C 19.2 C 0.0 C 26% W 6 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 29 Tue 11 PM 7000 FT -0.5 C 18.7 C 0.0 C 25% WSW 6 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 30 Wed 12 AM 7000 FT -0.3 C 18.5 C 0.0 C 25% W 11 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 31 Wed 01 AM 7100 FT -0.0 C 18.2 C 0.0 C 24% W 13 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 32 Wed 02 AM 7100 FT 0.1 C 18.1 C 0.0 C 24% WNW 13 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 33 Wed 03 AM 7200 FT -0.1 C 18.3 C 0.0 C 25% W 9 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 34 Wed 04 AM 7200 FT -0.1 C 18.3 C 0.0 C 24% SW 10 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 35 Wed 05 AM 7000 FT -0.1 C 18.3 C 0.0 C 24% SW 12 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 36 Wed 06 AM 7000 FT 0.3 C 17.9 C 0.0 C 23% SSW 15 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 37 Wed 07 AM 7000 FT 0.5 C 17.7 C 0.0 C 21% SW 17 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 38 Wed 08 AM 7000 FT 0.7 C 17.5 C 0.0 C 21% SW 19 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 39 Wed 09 AM 7100 FT 1.0 C 17.2 C 0.0 C 21% WSW 21 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 40 Wed 10 AM 7200 FT 1.4 C 16.8 C 0.0 C 21% WSW 23 KT 7.6 C/KM 0% 41 Wed 11 AM 7500 FT 1.6 C 16.6 C 0.0 C 22% WSW 24 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 42 Wed 12 PM 7800 FT 1.6 C 16.6 C 0.0 C 25% WSW 23 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 43 Wed 01 PM 8000 FT 2.2 C 16.0 C 0.0 C 20% SW 23 KT 7.7 C/KM 0% 44 Wed 02 PM 8200 FT 2.9 C 15.3 C 0.0 C 18% SW 20 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 45 Wed 03 PM 8400 FT 3.3 C 14.9 C 0.0 C 18% SW 25 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 46 Wed 04 PM 8800 FT 4.7 C 13.5 C 0.0 C 18% WSW 25 KT 9.0 C/KM 0% 47 Wed 05 PM 9100 FT 5.6 C 12.6 C 0.0 C 18% WSW 22 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 48 Wed 06 PM 9400 FT 5.9 C 12.3 C 0.0 C 20% W 27 KT 8.8 C/KM 0% 49 Wed 07 PM 9500 FT 6.1 C 12.1 C 0.0 C 21% W 26 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 50 Wed 08 PM 9500 FT 5.6 C 12.6 C 0.0 C 36% WSW 26 KT 8.4 C/KM 0% 51 Wed 09 PM 9700 FT 4.8 C 13.4 C 0.0 C 37% WSW 21 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 52 Wed 10 PM 9700 FT 3.3 C 14.9 C 0.0 C 45% WSW 11 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 53 Wed 11 PM 9600 FT 2.5 C 15.7 C 0.0 C 49% WSW 12 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 54 Thu 12 AM 9400 FT 1.1 C 17.1 C 0.0 C 61% W 14 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 55 Thu 01 AM 8400 FT -0.6 C 18.8 C 0.0 C 62% W 16 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 56 Thu 02 AM 7800 FT -2.1 C 20.3 C 0.0 C 74% W 19 KT 5.7 C/KM 0% 57 Thu 03 AM 7900 FT -3.9 C 22.1 C 0.0 C 90% WNW 26 KT 5.3 C/KM 14% BOUNTIFUL OGDEN 58 Thu 04 AM 7100 FT -5.4 C 23.6 C 1.5 C 77% WNW 30 KT 4.5 C/KM 4% BOUNTIFUL OGDEN 59 Thu 05 AM 6600 FT -5.9 C 24.1 C 2.0 C 67% W 31 KT 4.4 C/KM 4% BOUNTIFUL OGDEN 60 Thu 06 AM 6000 FT -5.4 C 23.6 C 1.5 C 60% W 29 KT 4.8 C/KM 2% OGDEN OGDEN-NORTH NORTHERN WASATCH 61 Thu 07 AM 5800 FT -6.1 C 24.3 C 2.2 C 54% WNW 21 KT 4.7 C/KM 0% 62 Thu 08 AM 5800 FT -6.0 C 24.2 C 2.1 C 53% WNW 24 KT 5.0 C/KM 0% 63 Thu 09 AM 5500 FT -6.4 C 24.6 C 2.5 C 48% W 25 KT 5.2 C/KM 0% 64 Thu 10 AM 5500 FT -6.8 C 25.0 C 2.9 C 52% W 25 KT 5.3 C/KM 0% 65 Thu 11 AM 5600 FT -7.6 C 25.8 C 3.7 C 52% W 21 KT 4.7 C/KM 0% 66 Thu 12 PM 5700 FT -7.0 C 25.2 C 3.1 C 49% W 21 KT 5.0 C/KM 0% 67 Thu 01 PM 5800 FT -6.5 C 24.7 C 2.6 C 46% W 21 KT 5.2 C/KM 0% 68 Thu 02 PM 6000 FT -6.1 C 24.3 C 2.2 C 44% W 18 KT 5.3 C/KM 0% 69 Thu 03 PM 6100 FT -5.2 C 23.4 C 1.3 C 38% W 17 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 70 Thu 04 PM 6300 FT -4.3 C 22.5 C 0.4 C 36% WNW 17 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 71 Thu 05 PM 6400 FT -3.9 C 22.1 C 0.0 C 35% WNW 18 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 72 Thu 06 PM 6600 FT -3.1 C 21.3 C 0.0 C 37% WNW 19 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 73 Thu 07 PM 6800 FT -2.8 C 21.0 C 0.0 C 40% NW 16 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 74 Thu 08 PM 7000 FT -2.6 C 20.8 C 0.0 C 40% NW 15 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 75 Thu 09 PM 7100 FT -2.4 C 20.6 C 0.0 C 39% WNW 14 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 76 Thu 10 PM 7100 FT -2.1 C 20.3 C 0.0 C 40% WNW 15 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 77 Thu 11 PM 7100 FT -1.9 C 20.1 C 0.0 C 40% WNW 15 KT 6.8 C/KM 0% 78 Fri 12 AM 7100 FT -1.8 C 20.0 C 0.0 C 40% WNW 14 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 79 Fri 01 AM 7100 FT -1.7 C 19.9 C 0.0 C 40% WNW 14 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 80 Fri 02 AM 7100 FT -1.7 C 19.9 C 0.0 C 40% NW 15 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 81 Fri 03 AM 7100 FT -1.8 C 20.0 C 0.0 C 41% NW 13 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 82 Fri 04 AM 7100 FT -1.9 C 20.1 C 0.0 C 40% NW 13 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 83 Fri 05 AM 7100 FT -1.9 C 20.1 C 0.0 C 40% WNW 12 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 84 Fri 06 AM 7100 FT -1.9 C 20.1 C 0.0 C 39% WNW 9 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 85 Fri 07 AM 7000 FT -1.9 C 20.1 C 0.0 C 38% WNW 10 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 86 Fri 08 AM 6900 FT -1.9 C 20.1 C 0.0 C 37% W 9 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 87 Fri 09 AM 7100 FT -1.7 C 19.9 C 0.0 C 37% W 9 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 88 Fri 10 AM 7200 FT -1.5 C 19.7 C 0.0 C 37% WSW 9 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 89 Fri 11 AM 7500 FT -1.3 C 19.5 C 0.0 C 37% WSW 9 KT 6.6 C/KM 0% 90 Fri 12 PM 7700 FT -1.2 C 19.4 C 0.0 C 36% SW 8 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 91 Fri 01 PM 7900 FT -0.8 C 19.0 C 0.0 C 35% SW 8 KT 6.2 C/KM 0% 92 Fri 02 PM 8100 FT -0.0 C 18.2 C 0.0 C 35% SSW 9 KT 6.3 C/KM 0% 93 Fri 03 PM 8300 FT 0.7 C 17.5 C 0.0 C 35% SSW 11 KT 6.4 C/KM 0% 94 Fri 04 PM 8500 FT 1.4 C 16.8 C 0.0 C 35% SSW 11 KT 6.5 C/KM 0% 95 Fri 05 PM 8500 FT 2.2 C 16.0 C 0.0 C 32% SSW 12 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 96 Fri 06 PM 8400 FT 2.8 C 15.4 C 0.0 C 28% SW 15 KT 6.9 C/KM 0% 97 Fri 07 PM 8400 FT 3.3 C 14.9 C 0.0 C 25% SW 16 KT 7.0 C/KM 0% 98 Fri 08 PM 8400 FT 3.6 C 14.6 C 0.0 C 23% SW 13 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 99 Fri 09 PM 8500 FT 4.0 C 14.2 C 0.0 C 23% SW 14 KT 7.2 C/KM 0% 100 Fri 10 PM 8600 FT 4.7 C 13.5 C 0.0 C 23% WSW 19 KT 7.5 C/KM 0% 101 Fri 11 PM 8900 FT 4.8 C 13.4 C 0.0 C 23% WSW 17 KT 7.9 C/KM 0% 102 Sat 12 AM 9100 FT 4.8 C 13.4 C 0.0 C 23% WSW 15 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 103 Sat 01 AM 9000 FT 4.8 C 13.4 C 0.0 C 23% WSW 15 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 104 Sat 02 AM 8900 FT 4.7 C 13.5 C 0.0 C 22% WSW 14 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 105 Sat 03 AM 8800 FT 4.8 C 13.4 C 0.0 C 22% WSW 13 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 106 Sat 04 AM 8800 FT 4.6 C 13.6 C 0.0 C 23% SW 12 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 107 Sat 05 AM 8900 FT 4.7 C 13.5 C 0.0 C 24% SW 11 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 108 Sat 06 AM 9100 FT 4.8 C 13.4 C 0.0 C 25% WSW 11 KT 8.0 C/KM 0% 109 Sat 07 AM 9100 FT 4.6 C 13.6 C 0.0 C 27% WSW 11 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 110 Sat 08 AM 8900 FT 4.4 C 13.8 C 0.0 C 28% WSW 11 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 111 Sat 09 AM 8600 FT 4.4 C 13.8 C 0.0 C 28% WSW 13 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 112 Sat 10 AM 8400 FT 4.3 C 13.9 C 0.0 C 29% WSW 14 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 113 Sat 11 AM 8700 FT 4.3 C 13.9 C 0.0 C 30% SW 13 KT 8.3 C/KM 0% 114 Sat 12 PM 9500 FT 4.5 C 13.7 C 0.0 C 27% SW 15 KT 8.2 C/KM 0% 115 Sat 01 PM 9500 FT 5.4 C 12.8 C 0.0 C 24% SW 17 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% 116 Sat 02 PM 9600 FT 5.9 C 12.3 C 0.0 C 22% SW 17 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 117 Sat 03 PM 9800 FT 6.4 C 11.8 C 0.0 C 21% SW 19 KT 8.9 C/KM 0% 118 Sat 04 PM 10000 FT 7.0 C 11.2 C 0.0 C 20% SW 20 KT 9.1 C/KM 0% 119 Sat 05 PM 9900 FT 7.6 C 10.6 C 0.0 C 18% WSW 19 KT 9.0 C/KM 0% 120 Sat 06 PM 10300 FT 6.9 C 11.3 C 0.0 C 27% WSW 27 KT 8.5 C/KM 0% FORECAST HOURS 123-180 FHR VALID TIME WETBULBZERO T700 LAKE-700 EXCESS RH850-700 WIND700 LAPSE700-500 GSLE PROB (%) AFFECTED AREAS 123 Sat 09 PM 9700 FT 4.5 C 13.7 C 0.0 C 37% WNW 29 KT 7.3 C/KM 0% 126 Sun 12 AM 8700 FT -1.7 C 19.9 C 0.0 C 83% WNW 18 KT 5.7 C/KM 0% 129 Sun 03 AM 6600 FT -5.3 C 23.5 C 1.0 C 65% WNW 26 KT 4.6 C/KM 2% BOUNTIFUL OGDEN 132 Sun 06 AM 5800 FT -6.1 C 24.3 C 1.8 C 56% W 16 KT 5.0 C/KM 2% BOUNTIFUL OGDEN 135 Sun 09 AM 5800 FT -6.6 C 24.8 C 2.3 C 59% WNW 26 KT 4.5 C/KM 4% BOUNTIFUL OGDEN 138 Sun 12 PM 5900 FT -6.1 C 24.3 C 1.8 C 47% WNW 17 KT 4.7 C/KM 0% 141 Sun 03 PM 6400 FT -3.0 C 21.2 C 0.0 C 38% NW 19 KT 5.6 C/KM 0% 144 Sun 06 PM 7000 FT -0.5 C 18.7 C 0.0 C 31% NW 21 KT 5.9 C/KM 0% 147 Sun 09 PM 7500 FT 0.4 C 17.8 C 0.0 C 28% NW 19 KT 5.7 C/KM 0% 150 Mon 12 AM 8100 FT 1.2 C 17.0 C 0.0 C 29% NNW 11 KT 5.5 C/KM 0% 153 Mon 03 AM 8200 FT 1.5 C 16.7 C 0.0 C 30% NW 8 KT 5.5 C/KM 0% 156 Mon 06 AM 8200 FT 1.8 C 16.4 C 0.0 C 31% NW 5 KT 5.5 C/KM 0% 159 Mon 09 AM 8200 FT 2.4 C 15.8 C 0.0 C 31% WNW 5 KT 5.8 C/KM 0% 162 Mon 12 PM 8300 FT 3.1 C 15.1 C 0.0 C 29% WSW 5 KT 6.0 C/KM 0% 165 Mon 03 PM 8700 FT 4.8 C 13.4 C 0.0 C 25% WSW 9 KT 6.7 C/KM 0% 168 Mon 06 PM 9800 FT 6.0 C 12.2 C 0.0 C 25% WSW 11 KT 7.1 C/KM 0% 171 Mon 09 PM 9900 FT 7.0 C 11.2 C 0.0 C 24% W 12 KT 7.4 C/KM 0% 174 Tue 12 AM 10200 FT 7.3 C 10.9 C 0.0 C 22% NW 12 KT 7.8 C/KM 0% 177 Tue 03 AM 10500 FT 7.3 C 10.9 C 0.0 C 22% WNW 7 KT 8.1 C/KM 0% 180 Tue 06 AM 10400 FT 7.4 C 10.8 C 0.0 C 22% NW 4 KT 8.1 C/KM 0%